Mugabe turns 84, battling to hold onto power
05:02 a.m. 02/20/2008 Provided by


By Cris Chinaka

HARARE (Reuters) - Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe turns 84 on Thursday, defiant as ever but facing an unprecedented challenge in an election due next month.

Mugabe, Zimbabwe's sole ruler since independence in 1980, won a controversial endorsement from his ruling ZANU-PF party to stand for re-election, but could face stiff resistance from a former ally who blames him for an economic meltdown.

Former Finance Minister Simba Makoni has vowed to grab the presidency from Mugabe in the March 29 vote, promising to help Zimbabweans plagued by the world's highest inflation rate and severe food and fuel shortages.

Mugabe says he is "raring to go" against his opponents, including Makoni, who has been branded a sellout by state media.

Mugabe will celebrate his birthday at a huge rally in the southern border town of Beitbridge on Saturday where he is expected to set the tone of his re-election campaign.

On Thursday, Mugabe is likely to mark his birthday with a traditional private family dinner and he is expected to meet with his staff.

But political analysts say the celebrations have been overshadowed by Makoni's entry into the race in which Morgan Tsvangirai, head of the main faction of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), is also participating.

"Mugabe will try obviously to put up a brave face in public, but in private I think his approach would be to treat both Makoni and Tsvangirai as serious challengers," said Eldred Masunungure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe.

CALLS FOR REFORM

"Mugabe tends to get his way by never leaving anything to chance or taking things for granted," he added.

The MDC accuses Mugabe of hanging on to power through vote-rigging and repressive measures. It says Zimbabwe needs radical reform to ease a crisis that has left the country with the world's highest inflation rate of over 66,000 percent.

Mugabe says the economy is being sabotaged by Western opponents led by former colonial power Britain who want to oust him for seizing white-owned farms for landless blacks, a move critics say has ruined the key agriculture sector.

Analysts say Mugabe, whose government has effectively been under Western economic sanctions since ZANU-PF's controversial election victory in 2000, is likely to deploy his political shock troops -- independence war veterans with a history of

intimidating rivals -- into the election fray to win the poll.

Millions of Zimbabweans are expected to vote in the presidential, parliamentary and municipal polls. Mugabe and his opponents have described the event as a landmark election in the country's post-independence period.

In a newspaper commentary last week on the March elections, Professor Stephen Chan of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, and author of the book "Robert Mugabe: A Life of Power and Violence," said Makoni's chances would depend on influential figures rumored to be backing him in ZANU-PF.

"This is the lion cub taking on the lion king...and the people upon whom he must now rely must not let him down at the first opportunistic moment," Chan said.

"Mugabe is a very powerful leader of the pride. There will be vengeance to come. Makoni knows he has to win, and he knows the chances are high that he will not."

Where is the snoozer icon?

Same old, same old, until Mugabe croaks, and that sure ain't much of a guarantee for the future either. Look at SA!

Lets hope they let zim people have a rest from all this shit. They are excellent persons and deserve a rest

Inflation rate now at 66K! It was 25K when I was there in October.

quote:

Will we be Hunting Zim in the Fall?

My money is on YES, but we shall see. There will be a lot of attention brought to bear on Zim surrounding the elections, so expect to read/hear more then previously.

I think we need to apply a little analytical thought to this. My take on it is that there's no chance Mugabe is gonna lose this election as he'll have it rigged. - The same as always.

The only way he'll lose power is if he gets too sick to continue or if he dies....... either way, or come to that, even if he does lose the election, the country will still have ridiculous inflation, no food, no fuel and mass unemployment. Whoever takes over, will still have to correct those problems and there's nothing to say, that whoever does take over, will not continue with the same policies as Mugabe.

If the new Government does try to be responsible, I think there's no doubt that the world bank and the various charities will step in, in a big way. - Even then, it'll take years to come right.

However, the country still has some very good hunting and some very good hunting operators and I believe this will continue for some years at least. So the hunting will be available to those who want to book it.

I personally believe that the more pressing question should be, 'will the US/UK/Euro etc Governments permit their citizens to visit Zimbabwe, given the political situation? - We've already seen the first hints of that happening

The answer to that, is in the lap of the Gods.... but the ever increasing political correctness of the western world really is getting out of hand. - My advice would be that if you want to hunt Zim and are happy with the situation, book it and hunt it ASAP and if it turns out, you can hunt later as well, then do so again if you feel so inclined.

You are possibly correct Steve. I feel that you hunt there until you cant because its still the best value in Africa. You cant shoot cow elephant anywhere else that I know of. If they do shut down it will be years before they reopen,remember Zambia, and when they do it will be much more expensive.

I'm hearing some hope and optimism from locals. I hope they are right. Those guys could use a break.

I'm planning on going back but it won't be soon enough to suit me. Prices are climbing and there will be more news from other safari destinations that will cause that to continue.

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Originally posted by yukon delta:
I'm hearing some hope and optimism from locals.

Ha!

As much as the locals here in the USA piss and moan about Geo. Bush and their own country, the local Zim guy still sees the USA as the great white hope. They've seen how their black brothers treat them. It is also why Bush and other past Presidents are so wlecomed on their "Africa tours."

I never had the heart to tell them that the USA was not coming to their aid.

I suspect that if and when Mugabe croaks, a new dictatorship will follow, as most black-ruled countries are wont to do. The big question from a hunting standpoint is whether the new regime will be better or worse? The new ruling power could go "green" from outsiders pouring money into the country, like Bostwana. Lion and leopard are now out? One should be careful for what they wish for.

Didn't know politicians of any colour or hue came in any shade of "better" only varying degrees of "worse"

And, we could do alot worse than old bob - we could get Jacob Zuma

quote:

Originally posted by Ganyana:
Didn't know politicians of any colour or hue came in any shade of "better" only varying degrees of "worse"

And, we could do alot worse than old bob - we could get Jacob Zuma

That is going to be a real mess Ganyana

Bill, you entirely missed the point of my post. The guys I know in Zim have no expectation of US help and that is not at all what I am referring to.

Sitting around the fire in 2006 at Russell's place in Vic Falls talking about the future, I heard most everyone agree that there are bigger bad-asses standing behind Mugabe waiting for him to die so they can load their Swiss accounts. I don't see a future that is very bright.

I think Shakari is pretty close to the truth.

I will hunt Zim in mid-September unless the place is in flames.

Zimbabwe has the economic potential to fill the Swuiss bank accounts of a legion of successive dictators. But to do it the damn dictators have got to get away from socialist/communist/redistributionist economic policies.

If Mugabe had handled it right, he would be the President (read dictator) of the largest economy in Southern Africa and he would own the Swuiss banks. The whites would still be farming their farms, blacks would have jobs on those farms and the Zim dollar would trade at a premium to the US dollar.

Instead of redistribution, offering the opportunity for (free) education and the opportunity for merit based advancement, not too damn different than the way the US did it, would eventually open the doors for capable blacks, as opposed redistributing assets to incapable and unprepared blacks - or corrupt cronnies.

JPK

I agree with that.

I guess I will keep hunting in Zim until someone tells me I can't.

I think we have to watch carefully. I know some PH's started to leave the country for Botswana and Zambia. I'm planning to go in April and just got an email from my PH that situation is deteriorating. Department of wildlife in disarray.

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I'm planning to go in April and just got an email from my PH that situation is deteriorating.

Greetings, if I might ask, who is your PH and in what area will you be hunting, and for what? Regards, Bill

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Originally posted by Bill C:

quote:

I'm planning to go in April and just got an email from my PH that situation is deteriorating.

Greetings, if I might ask, who is your PH and in what area will you be hunting, and for what? Regards, Bill

Obviously don't want to relise the name. It is Bufallo hunt in around Kariba lake

Understood...can you answer this, is the comment from a reputable Zim-based outfitter, or a South Africa PH hunting there? Would assume not the latter, but just trying to determine if the problems the PH is encountering are possibly something "self inflicted". Thanks.

quote:

Originally posted by Russian:
I think we have to watch carefully. I know some PH's started to leave the country for Botswana and Zambia. I'm planning to go in April and just got an email from my PH that situation is deteriorating. Department of wildlife in disarray.

That doesn't really mean much at all. Many PHs in Africa operate in more than one country. For example, go into the bar at the Seacliff hotel in Dar es Salaam at the beginning of the season and you'll find PHs there from half a dozen African countries, and probably some from three or four western/European countries.

I know people on several of the committee's, Parks, etc. and they haven't said anything like that. I don't know of any reputable PHs that have left Zim. I have heard of foreigners leaving and that's ok because they weren't really licensed to work on their own.

In fact, I know of more PHs wanting to get into Zim than out of it.

I will be there in august for ele if nothin happens on the mean time