I'm having trouble getting seats to Frankfurt, via mainland US, and on to Windhoek in June. How bad can the economy be?

Depends on how many flights are cut by all the carriers serving your route...June is also mid-peak season to Europe.

David,
Re-post this next January 2010, you ain't seen nothin yet. Plus to boot you live on the west slope as I do, we're lagging behind and read recently that we are in the top 5% least effected area in the US at this time.

quote:

Originally posted by TWL:
I'm having trouble getting seats to Frankfurt, via mainland US, and on to Windhoek in June. How bad can the economy be?

Airlines have cut huge numbers of flights and continue to cut flights that don't fill up frequently. So full planes and less flight options are the new norm.

You must be joking. Without the direct participation of first world Central Banks the world as you know it would no longer exist...

L

I don't think the economy is that bad. Some sectors, sure, but unemployment ain't bad and things aren't near as ugly as in the late 70's/early '80's or the late 80's early 90's.

Our expectations have changed and we've gotten spoiled.

JPK

Sure, the market is only down 40% since October 2007, Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros are history, the budget deficit is a modest $1.2 trillion, Chrysler and GM are broke . . . hell, happy days are here again, the skys above are clear again, . . .

Property taxes are just now being paid (or not). Income taxes will be due in April. Let's see what happens then...

There is definately a "theory of relativity" applicable in economics and finance.

Economy for me in New Zealsnd seems fine at this point in time ...

I am now on the official government pension so now have a guarantted (albeit) small income coming in till they decide to elimiminate me.

Also I managed to refinance my home mortgage loan without any great drama as our banks here in NZ seem to be relatively immune from the so called world economic crises

All the best for 2009

Cheers, Peter

The biggest New Zealand agriculture found dropped 60%....

L

Yup, world economies are in great shape.

Governments all over the world have bailed out the banks to the tune of Christ knows how much and the banks are grimly hanging onto it rather than passing it on to the consumer.

Invested capital is giving vitrually no return.

Car manufacturers and other heavy industry round the world are all going tits up.

Large companies and stores are laying off staff and closing stores etc, left right and centre.

Oil prices are up and down like a whore's draws.

Madoff has taken individuals, banks, companies and pension funds for absolutely billions of dollars and looks like he'll effectively get away with it.

The British Government have just decided the way to cure their ecomomy is to reduce VAT and print more money. - Probably got that one from Mr Mugabe's inspirational economic policies!

All we need to make things just fuckin' perfect is a world war!

Ah well, as long as the distilleries stay in business, we'll be just fine.

quote:

Originally posted by shakari:
Ah well, as long as the distilleries stay in business, we'll be just fine.

You have just been added to my "favourite people" list.

L

They raised the price of beer in Burundi and there's rioting in the streets.

Yes, it's a recession (remember those, they come and go and frankly they have a cleansing effect).

But the 24 hour media have a vested interest in making it look worse than it actually is. This to make Bush look worse than he was and to make any bounce or good news look like the work of the new administration. Watch, after the inauguration, the media will trumpet every little piece of good news.

Unfortunately, all this doomsday talk is a self-fulfilling prophecy - people get cautious about investing and spending and that exacerbates the problem. Bring on the inauguration so this effect can go the other way.

Economic cycles are as old as civilization. Look at the big picture. People are driven to consume and (for the most part) programmed to produce. Sooner or later, that equation will cause the economies of the world to rebound. And we do have a global economy, which makes the whole thing more resilient and diversified.

In the USA, foreclosures are still under 3% of mortgaged homes, probably 2% of all homes. And banks on the watch list in the USA also less than 3%, don't remember the exact number.

It's not the end of the world as we know it.

Jets from NY to Frankfurt and Frankfurt to Windhoek aren't filled with factory workers and line cooks. They are filled with people who have reserves of disposable income/assets. So what if a guy who had a $10MM net worth now only has a 7.5MM net worth? He's not going to let that stop him from spending $15,000 on a little African trip.

That's the thing about recessions: They affect different classes of people differently. If you happen to own a pawn shop, recessions are the busiest time of the business cycle. If you're selling houses to blue collar stiffs, you might as well be standing in a soup line.

The biggesst danger is that Federal policy will turn a recession into a full fledged depression. The New admistration, in it's zeal will bear watching and now the fox is guarding the henhouse.

NEWS FLASH from SILICON VALLEY!

Things are not good here. Todays news:

INTEL 4th Q drop -23%
Still no state budget-Gov to cut 2 paid holidays
Auto dealerships closing
Median home value -40%
Apple stock -50% in 2008
GOOGLE workforce down -20%
LOGITECH to cut workforce -15%

On a personal note, my IRAs are down -40 to -60%.

But I guess if you guys say there's no problem then everything must be OK, huh?

Cheers

quote:

Originally posted by LionHunter:
NEWS FLASH from SILICON VALLEY!

Things are not good here. Todays news:

INTEL 4th Q drop -23%
Still no state budget-Gov to cut 2 paid holidays
Auto dealerships closing
Median home value -40%
Apple stock -50% in 2008
GOOGLE workforce down -20%
LOGITECH to cut workforce -15%

On a personal note, my IRAs are down -40 to -60%.

But I guess if you guys say there's no problem then everything must be OK, huh?

Cheers

Forgot to add that the state unemployment rate will be over 10% after a budget agreement is reached...

I recently read some pundits commentary on the economy, which , though mostly tongue in cheek, will likely prove to be a better forecast than most of the rest you hear. Short version of his commentary is that by July 2009, after the anointed one is in charge, the media will spend ALL of their time and powers of persuasion telling us how good things are, or soon will be. Won't take long for most to believe.
The truth is, I think he is correct about the media, and markets are moved by perception, not by reality.

I can readily see that none of you guys are from the midwest. Different story here--- it is not a 'recession' but depression. Manufacturing has been gone, now service industries struggling. Unemployment up and going through the roof and no prospect for improvement any time soon. It is not a pretty picture and the picture is getting worse.

It's bad all right. How bad is it, you ask?

Donald Trump was reportedly walking down Fifth Avenue the other day wearing a sandwich board that read:

"Will develop real estate for food."

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:
Jets from NY to Frankfurt and Frankfurt to Windhoek aren't filled with factory workers and line cooks. They are filled with people who have reserves of disposable income/assets. So what if a guy who had a $10MM net worth now only has a 7.5MM net worth? He's not going to let that stop him from spending $15,000 on a little African trip.

That's the thing about recessions: They affect different classes of people differently. If you happen to own a pawn shop, recessions are the busiest time of the business cycle. If you're selling houses to blue collar stiffs, you might as well be standing in a soup line.

That is a common response I see but don't fool yourself, the upper crust is getting their teeth kicked in on this one. Whether you are in oil or retail or construction or finance you are getting hurt. The wealthy have portfolios that are down 30-40% unless you had it with Bernie Madoff in which case you have $0. Business owners who do have some rainy day funds don't want to be spending big money on anything when their employees are losing their jobs.

From what I have seen, the wealthy are getting hit as hard if not harder in this one.

quote:

Originally posted by Stonecreek:
Jets from NY to Frankfurt and Frankfurt to Windhoek aren't filled with factory workers and line cooks. They are filled with people who have reserves of disposable income/assets. So what if a guy who had a $10MM net worth now only has a 7.5MM net worth? He's not going to let that stop him from spending $15,000 on a little African trip.

That's the thing about recessions: They affect different classes of people differently. If you happen to own a pawn shop, recessions are the busiest time of the business cycle. If you're selling houses to blue collar stiffs, you might as well be standing in a soup line.

It might not stop you from taking a trip to Africe, if your net worth was $10MM, or so and it had declined to $7.5MM, but I know it would stop a lot of people, especially as there is no real assurance that things are going to improve in the near future. In my personal case, it caused me to cancel a hunting trip/family vacation to Australia next year, projected costs approx. $40,000. I went to Africa twice last year, almost certainly won't go this year. My fall back plan, IF THINGS IMPROVE, is to take a dove/duck hunting trip to Argentina with family. Projected costs substantially less than $40,000.

One final thought, most of the bread and butter hunters in RSA and Namibia are not millionaires and I'll bet serious money that future bookings from US hunters will be off substantially until things improve.

quote:

Originally posted by Russ Gould:
Yes, it's a recession (remember those, they come and go and frankly they have a cleansing effect).

But the 24 hour media have a vested interest in making it look worse than it actually is. This to make Bush look worse than he was and to make any bounce or good news look like the work of the new administration. Watch, after the inauguration, the media will trumpet every little piece of good news.

Unfortunately, all this doomsday talk is a self-fulfilling prophecy - people get cautious about investing and spending and that exacerbates the problem. Bring on the inauguration so this effect can go the other way.

Economic cycles are as old as civilization. Look at the big picture. People are driven to consume and (for the most part) programmed to produce. Sooner or later, that equation will cause the economies of the world to rebound. And we do have a global economy, which makes the whole thing more resilient and diversified.

In the USA, foreclosures are still under 3% of mortgaged homes, probably 2% of all homes. And banks on the watch list in the USA also less than 3%, don't remember the exact number.

It's not the end of the world as we know it.

JPenn wrote:
"I recently read some pundits commentary on the economy, which , though mostly tongue in cheek, will likely prove to be a better forecast than most of the rest you hear. Short version of his commentary is that by July 2009, after the anointed one is in charge, the media will spend ALL of their time and powers of persuasion telling us how good things are, or soon will be. Won't take long for most to believe.
The truth is, I think he is correct about the media, and markets are moved by perception, not by reality."

This I think these guys have it right.

But really, The economy isn't currently in that bad a shape. Think about this, when I was in business school in 80, every economist thought that structural unemployment, that level that was permanent and could not be reduced without hyper inflationary trends, was 7.5%. The prime rate was in the high teens. Inflation in high double digits. Gas cost $1.35 in 1998 dollars or close... The marginal tax rate was 70%!!! on unearned income...

Its been so damn good for so damned long that people have forgotten what tough economic times are. We ain't there yet, might not get there, especially since the media will change its tune on the 20th and switch from doom and gloom - eight years' worth = to blue sky and rainbows ahead.

But it is true that the fox is gaurding the hen house regarding economic growth, tax rates, spending, entitlements...

Shakiri,

Reducing taxes and increasing money supply are both stimulating to the economy. Smart growth moves in a deflationary environment, like now.

JPK

JPK

JPK it might be great in MD. where you live but it sure isn't great up here. Once more Shakari hits the nail on the head.Once more the monied elite are bailed out with taxpayers money . I am so surprised{not] Dan

I don't know how to get by the perception that my small construction company has had no work and nothing in the foreseeable future. All employees drawing unemployment. Oh well just our perception that health insurance is $1935 per month for me and my wife with $5000 deductable. Oh well just my perception.

It will be really interesting to see how bookings are in Dallas this weekend.

quote:

Originally posted by gunbug:
JPK it might be great in MD. where you live but it sure isn't great up here. Once more Shakari hits the nail on the head.Once more the monied elite are bailed out with taxpayers money . I am so surprised{not] Dan

No, in this go round, those with the most money are the ones hit hardest. We have seen considerable asset deflation. To suffer asset deflation, you have to have assets.

While the marginal value of the lost $1 might not be the same, the % lost is much, much greater, and the real $'s lost likewise.

JPK

Zambia is just fine,

Most everything has always been quite/damn expensive, so nothing has changed there, the EU paid off ALL of Zambia's debt a few years ago, and the rains keep coming, and the wild life seems plentiful, and my brother seems to be keen to scale back his SA business and expand his Zambia business interests .... SO GO FIGURE that out .....

Maybe some countries in Africa are not as bad as those in the so called developed Western countries were lead to believe..

The so called libral democracies in the West are burning money or giving it away to failed businesses faster than Mugabe can print it

Happy Happy Africa

Cheers, Peter

I trim/build cabinets for some really well healed folks,with really nice mini-estates.About an 1 1/2 hours north of NYC.Mostly weekenders with second or sometimes 3rd homes....

It's bad,really bad.

When they tell me they are pinched,I'm on the losing end.Worst I've seen in the buisness in the 20 years I've been playing around.

But the sun will still come up tomorrow,and the cycle up will start again.Just hope it's sooner than later....

This is killing my Cape Buffalo fund!


Dan

Interesting discussion everyone!

Balla Balla, the seemingly little effect in most of Africa is probably due to the fact that most of the economies have been severly fucked up already over a long period, so the recent sharp global punches are less noticable. Interest rates and fuel prices mean shit to folks that walk to where they want to go or ride bicycles and don't have bank accounts.

Trump would probably do that. What a dick-head!

I sell Corporate Jets for a living and have never seen the market turn bad so fast, including the 80's. I met last nigt with two of Cessna's Regional Sales Managers and to sum it up they are scared about the depth and longevity of the down turn.

Decided last minute to go to Reno my friend made one call and booked the Atlantis as did the other party going with us. Last year it was very hard to get a room.

Most everyone who has assets has gotten beaten up over the past two years or will be over the next year. This is pervasive even though those who caused it may suffer the least. You know who THOSE are: real estate "flippers" mostly in Florida, California, Nevada, Arizona. They have taken their profits and tossed the keys to lenders on properties they could no longer "flip". Throw in all the "executives" who have literally "stolen" money from "the system". You also know who they are.

Certainly anyone with "market investments" have taken hits of anywhere from 20-40% depending on how aggressive their investments have been.

From here I would begin to "follow the government money". Autos, financial institutions, municipal bonds from state institutions with their hands out, will not be allowed to fall.

Just thank how many times WE have bailed out New York, New York City alone. I say break up Wall Street and spread "Manhatten" across the rest of the country. We cannot afford them! I will throw Washington D.C. and surrounding counties into that "spread out" as well.

Well sorry for the rant but I am still going to Zim in May/June, see ya'll in Dallas.

Post this again in 12 months and I honestly believe the worst will have passed. It ALWAYS does.

Interesting input from all. Like others, I have taken a big hit. For me, the worst was around late November when I was down as much as 40% overall. Funding for this year's trip was helped by frequent flyer miles and a smoking deal offered to me as a return client. Without that help, I probably would have sat out this season.

I hate to be a downer, but I believe this economic turbulence is going to last at least a decade, although it could go off into two completely different directions. We have some financial dominos getting ready to fall that will keep us frugal for quite some time. I am talking about Medicare, Social Security and gigantic influx of baby boomers turning 65 starting in 2011. There is a reason why the Bush tax cuts were scheduled to expire in 2011. 2011 minus 65(start of SS benefits) equals 1946(start of the post war baby boom). We have had large budget deficits in the past and have still managed good economic growth, but the deficits we are facing now and the future due to the gross underfunding/overpayment of Medicare and SS (trillions and trillions) are eye poppingly large. In the not too distant future, just the interest on our ever growing national debt and our entitlement programs (SS,Medicare) will take more than 100% of all government revenues. We are about to hit a wall. We will have to radically cut government spending on entitlements and/or raise taxes leading to a continuing recession/depression/deflation OR the government will throw in the towel and just start printing money (we would have to borrow it from the Chinese and oil rich muslims) which will lead to huge inflation. In either case, it isn't pretty as the average investor doesn't know what to do. Does he invest for deflation, inflation or just admit Rome is burning and go hunt Africa while he or she can?
I want to give our older members more incentive to hunt now despite our current financial troubles. In 2011 the estate tax goes back to 55% on anything over $ 1,000,000 in net worth. This net worth includes all real estate, annuties, cash, investments, tax qualified savings account (could be subject to double taxation), autos, firearms, all personal property including your taxidermy. Basically everything including your left nut. Do you want it go to the Treasury to blow or would you rather blow it yourself in Africa?

quote:

Originally posted by Bill/Oregon:
Post this again in 12 months and I honestly believe the worst will have passed. It ALWAYS does.

I concur. And at least the media reporting on the situation will have switched gears. Perception is what drives the economy.

quote:

Originally posted by TWL:
Interesting input from all. Like others, I have taken a big hit. For me, the worst was around late November when I was down as much as 40% overall. Funding for this year's trip was helped by frequent flyer miles and a smoking deal offered to me as a return client. Without that help, I probably would have sat out this season.

TWL: You are a good example of why there are still full airplanes. You've been hurt by the economic downturn, but you are still relatively affluent and have money you can spend on discretionary items. You may be fearful that the economy may cut your paper net worth, but you're still fully capable of taking a trip when you choose to.

On the other hand, the guy who spent a month sitting in front of the TV without a pay check because the auto parts plant he works in shut down for five weeks in December typically wasn't a candidate for a seat on the Frankfurt flight even when his job was going well, so the fact that he isn't buying a plane ticket is not impacting the Frankfurt route.

I understand completely. I am well aware how current trends are relative, and how some have been hurt far more than others. I'm not passing judgements here; never meant to sound as if I was. If things continue as they have been beyond this coming year, I and others like me will no longer have that modest measure of discretionary funds and this may be my last Africa trip.