I'm just commencing the internal dialogue that says, "Bill, you really need to think about a hunt on the Zambezi for Cape buffalo in 2009." Just for the heck of it, do any of you financial gurus out there have any predictions for where the dollar will be in 15-18 months?

in the outfitter's pocket?

Bill,

I'm not a financial guru but I do watch the markets etc. The '08 Zim prices are still very reasonable but with US dollar steadily sliding I don't see how that the prices cannot jump. If a hunter is considering an '09 hunt I really think he would be wise to book ASAP to cement his daily fees.


Mark

as we have seen with the debacle in Tz., booking now does not necessarily lock in the future price of anything!!!!!!! there is no cement in the hunting industry unless you get a signed contract stating that no price increase will occur regardless of governmental actions, acts of God ,etc.( which you most assuredly will not get)

Mr. Dollar,

Daily fees did not go up in Tanzania. Government fees did. Daily fees can be solidified. Government fees cannot. In any country an advanced booking could save $50-$200 per day. Booking late, paying more and taking what dates may be leftover just is not prudent.

Mark

so if the government increases concession fees to outfitters by 400%, the outfitter just eats the cost increase and doesn't raise his daily rates? i am sure some high end outfitters may do this, but i am skeptical that they all will.

Bill i dont think that anyone will be able to give you a very accurate prediction over that time frame in these volatile markets. But as an outsider who watches the markets closely your economy is on a shaky foundation at the moment and you are losing a lot of ground to the Euro. This has been discussed recently on another post but personally i would hedge my bets and open a Euro account. You have no control over the govt charges etc but by having a Euro account you may protect yourself against any dollar weakness. With the oil volatility, Iran, the sub prime fiasco and an election coming up it is definitely a good time to apply yourself and do some careful planning.At least you will be aware of what is going on and maximise your situation regardless of external events

i would not be surprised if, in the near future, many southern African outfitters don't start establishing prices in Euros instead of dollars, the way many central African outfitters already do. unfortunately setting up Euro accounts in this country is not easy. back to your original topic, if you can find an outfitter who will absolutely GUARANTEE his daily rate regardless of any extraneous forces for 2009, go for it. until the 2008 elections are over and Americans have an idea of where taxes in this country are going, i think the dollar will continue to sink against most major world currencies

Bill,

I personally think the USD has the potential to continue depreciating overall as we are currently seeing. The only thing that will slow it is the revaluing of the chinese currency, which at present is pegged to the USD$ Given that Zambias currency is free floating it should follow that it will go the same way as the other currencies, with the only difference that southern african economies will still have a demand for USD although some weaker states are starting to look favourably on the Euro too.

Basically you could guarentee the rates now and protect yourself against a further 10% loss in value, but if China revalues then the USD$ strengthens significantly and rapidly, so you will be far offside.

I think the key to this is the effect that the US economy has on your earning potential and disposable income. Given that a safari is a luxury item, (some would claim it as a neccesity I'm sure... ) it will be one of the first things to be come unviable in the event of loss of earnings so for me that is what I would look at before concerning myself with the FX rates.

JMHO, but hope it helps,
FB

Fallow Buck:
Appreciate your insights. And in fact in my particular economic stratum, fading earning power and vanishing disposable income are my biggest concerns. However, I am prepared to eat macaroni and cheese on a daily basis before giving up on the idea of chasing a Cape buffalo. I'd rather be retired and poor with wonderful memories than comfortable with none ...

Unfortunately, the dollar will continue it's decline.
The Fed is set to lower interest rates to keep the Stock MArket uo, thereby reducing the attraction of the dollar to foreign investors.

Simultaneously, interest rates are going up here, making the Euro more attractive.

One potentially very dark cloud on the horizon it the US debt to China, currently estomated at 1.4 trillion US dollars.
The Chinese are getting very nervous, and if they start calling in their debts, it won't be long before we see $2 to the Euro.

Mr. Dollar,

You do not seem to understand the difference between daily fees and government fees. Daily fees are what the safari company charges to put on the safari. Government fees are not part of the daily fees but additional charges. Some coutries have more government fees than others so the government fees are a much larger portion of the total safari cost. In the case of Tanzania there are several government fees other tha just trophy fees. In Zim there are few additional government fees.

You absolutely can guarantee daily fees with a forward booking but not government fees. No operator I ever heard of will guarantee all costs against the incidence of government increases. That very well could be suicide for a safari company.

BTW Central Africa (Cameroon, CAR etc) charges for safaris in Euros because they used to charge in francs and francs have been replaced by Euros. It has nothing to do with the weakness of the US dollar.

Mark

if the fee a safari company has to pay to the government for hunting rights in a concession go from $10,000 a year to $40-50,000 a year, are you saying that most safari companies will just eat this cost increase and not raise their daily rates to cover it? some will but i find it heard to believe that most will.