African elephants face extinction by 2020, conservationists warn

Last Updated: 12:01am BST 04/08/2008

Samuel Wasser, of the University of Washington, said the elephant death rate from poaching was currently 8 per cent, higher than the 7.4 per cent rate which led to the international ivory trade ban in 1989.


Writing in the journal Conservation Biology, Dr Wasser and fellow researchers warned that without public pressure to ensure a strengthening of anti-poaching measures, most remaining large groups of elephants will be extinct by the end of next decade.

The population in the 1980s was around 1 million, with around 70,000 elephants being killed a year. The total African elephant population is now less than 470,000.

Dr Wasser said the loss of the animals will have a negative impact on their ecosystem and other wildlife that depend on it - as well as on the cashflow they generate from tourists.

"If the trend continues, there won't be any elephants except in fenced areas with a lot of enforcement to protect them," he said.

"The situation is worse than ever before and the public is unaware. It's very serious because elephants are an incredibly important species.

"They keep habitats open so other species that depend on such ecosystems can use them. Without elephants there will be major habitat changes, with negative effects on the many species that depend on the lost habitat.

Elephants are also a major part of ecotourism, which is an important source of hard currency for many African countries. Recent reports have shown that demand for ivory is growing in places such as China, Japan and the US.

DNA analysis developed by Dr Wasser's laboratory which enables researchers to determine which elephant population ivory comes shows from recent seizures that hunters are targeting specific herds.

Dr Wasser said such information could be used to increase and focus enforcement efforts for at-risk groups of elephants, but that will only happen with greater international pressure to save them.

The restrictions on ivory brought in by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (Cites) in 1989 led to much stronger enforcement efforts and almost halted poaching.

But the success of the ban led to less enforcement, and poaching has increased to the current rates, he said. "Public support stopped the illegal ivory trade back in 1989 and can do so again.

"The work with DNA sampling allows us to focus law enforcement on poaching hotspots. "It forces countries to take more responsibility for what goes on within their borders, and it also gives us more insight on where to look so that, hopefully, we can stop the poachers before the elephants are actually killed."

I wonder if the author would be willing to make a wager on his extinction prediction. I could use some retirement money about that time.

I would bet my entire portfolio (depressed as it is now) and then I could do some real hunting!

Hey, Ed - add my portfolio to yours; I want to go hunt with you, & this seems to be a way that we can both raise more money .....

Did any of guys actually read Kathi's article? It talks about poaching. POACHING. Get it? Do you guys think poaching does not exist?
Peter

Certainly the Mugabe gov't or its successor could decide that biltong is the highest and best use of elephant, and then Zim would be devoid of elephants within 90 days.

When biologists come up with such predictions they are based on a set of assumptions. These assumptions may or may not be true or they may be true now and change in the future. I would guess that some of the assumptions they used were, their population estimates are correct (not likely as most population estimates underestimate population levels unless they are corrected for visibility bias in the surveys), poaching rates are accurate and will not change over time, poaching rates will be consistent over the entire range of elephants. This is also highly unlikely.

465H&H

Peter did you read the article it predicted the extinction of the elephant. Yes it spoke of poaching but our comments were about the extinction. I will loan you my glasses if you think you may need them.

I agree as with most forecasts they should be taken with a grain of salt and also an understanding the point of view from which the forecaster is comming from.

Remeber how the Alaskan pipeline was going to desimate the game along its route well we know how that turned out. Forecasts are like election poles they just keep people employed and trying to tell us what our future holds.

History is more interesting than forecasts.

Another thing it isn't Kathi's article, she just printed a news release by the "greens".
I may be wrong but I don't think that is Kathi's opinion. JMO

Also Peter I do understand POACHING as does anyone that has hunted in Zim., be it poaching of elephant or any other game.

Re-Read 500 Grains post.

With the current conditions in Zimbabwe, the whole animal population is at risk.

If hunting is stopped, if anti poaching efforts end, if civil war breaks out, if the Government [the current one or the next one] turns the people loose on animals for food, then you can not only kill the elephant good by.

There is very little to eat in Zimbabwe, 80% unemployment. That cannot go on for much longer.

quote:

Originally posted by N E 450 No2:
.

With the current conditions in Zimbabwe, the whole animal population is at risk.

If hunting is stopped, if anti poaching efforts end, if civil war breaks out, if the Government [the current one or the next one] turns the people loose on animals for food, then you can not only kill the elephant good by.

There is very little to eat in Zimbabwe, 80% unemployment. That cannot go on for much longer.

And as African governments are notoriously unstable, it could happen in any African country at any time. If there were a natural disaster affecting the food and fuel supply in Zambia, it would not take long before the locals snared or shot everything that moved, and at it.

I thought that the largest population of elephants were in the Congo, and as far as I was aware they are not under any strain from excessive poaching. Admittedly they are not savannah elephants but the article just states elephants. I'm pretty confident that elephants will still be in africa in reasonable numbers in 2020. Poaching is only a temporary threat, loss of habitat will have a greater impact in the long term. I also agree with Die Ou Jagter that the article is not Kathi's opinion she is only reporting it.

With the Afrian human population growing as fast as it is, this might not be at all impossible.

quote:

Originally posted by Cumbrian:
I'm pretty confident that elephants will still be in africa in reasonable numbers in 2020.

Not if I have anything to do about it.

We all tend to believe what suits our cause. Hunters will always want to think that ele's will be around forever and the "greens" will always preach extinction. The truth no doubt lies somewhere in between. One thing is for sure, poaching is alive and well and as "500grains" said the various political situations and possible natural disasters could and no doubt will, have a major influence on animal numbers.

I think there is absolutely no doubt that the not so rare "homo sapiens" will one day cease to exist. Havn't seen any dinosaurs wandering around lately!!

I can testify to this, it does not take very long for the "local population" to butcher, and walk off with a whole elephant.

Elephant meat is very tasty, even for a "Civilized Man" that is not hunger driven.

Has this esteemed Doctor ever been to Africa?

Each country has to be modeled separately. You can't work with totals and averages. Yes, there are countries where elephants are endangered, mainly in North Africa. But in every country in Southern Africa, their numbers are increasing.

And the problem, where it exists, is certainly not sport hunting. It is poaching and loss of habitat....although elephants have a habit of defining their own habitat. They survive just fine in corn fields!

I expect this is one of those "pay me enough and I will conclude what you want me to conclude" studies.

First off his article is laced with propaganda through and through. He said there were under 470,000 elephant on the African continent he only missed the true number by 700,000 to 800,000 the true estimate of African elephant is around 1,200,000 to 1,300,000. I would not believe a thing this guy writes, he's got an agenda and is politically motivated.

Dirk

quote:

Originally posted by 500grains:
Certainly the Mugabe gov't or its successor could decide that biltong is the highest and best use of elephant, and then Zim would be devoid of elephants within 90 days.

90 days? You would give it that long?

quote:

Originally posted by dirklawyer:
First off his article is laced with propaganda through and through. He said there were under 470,000 elephant on the African continent he only missed the true number by 700,000 to 800,000 the true estimate of African elephant is around 1,200,000 to 1,300,000. I would not believe a thing this guy writes, he's got an agenda and is politically motivated.

Dirk

Dirklawyer!

Where did your data come from?

465H&H

Maybe we can get Bush and Congress to give Africa 48 Million, or is it billion, for elephants, rather then aids treatment. Work at the same problem from two different ends...

Ah, the sky is falling, the sky is falling..another Democrat liberal spewing BS IMO.

quote:

Originally posted by Peter:
Did any of guys actually read Kathi's article? It talks about poaching. POACHING. Get it? Do you guys think poaching does not exist?
Peter

Yeah, I'm calling BS as well. Poaching has actually been declining pretty steadily since it's peak in the 70-80s. If the ele were close to extinction, then why is almost every govt. w/ ele populations, doing culling on an annual basis? Habitat destruction is a greater concern than poachers, but I'll bet the ele will be fine for the next 100yrs or so.

Localised Extinctions may occur, but in most areas the real conflict that is of most concern is between good management policies and the sway that the animal activists seem to have. Since when does the effects of complete habitat destruction pale in comparison to the will of the activist. If you want real stats on viable elephant poulations and the effects that their ongoing breeding without suitable culling is having. Speak to Cleve Cheney. There is an honest man with a lot of knowledge and no punches pulled at the cost of being unpopular.

quote:

Speak to Cleve Cheney. There is an honest man with a lot of knowledge and no punches pulled at the cost of being unpopular.

Cleve is indeed EXTREMELY knowledgeable....

DNA forensics to stop elephant poaching in Tanzania, elsewhere

August 25, 2008


THISDAY REPORTER & AGENCIES
Dar es Salaam

A NEW study has determined that extracting elephant DNA from confiscated ivory could be an important tool to help wildlife authorities stop elephant poaching at its source.

According to an Environmental News Network report, such expensive forensic work may become necessary to protect dwindling elephant populations and curb the illegal ivory market before it gets completely out of control.

’’In big seizures, there’s a very strong tendency to ship ivory out of a different country than where it is poached. It’s a bit of a red herring,’’ said Samuel Wasser, director of the University of Washington’s Centre for Conservation Biology and lead author of the study.

’’The methods we developed are very important in that regard because it focuses where the poaching is ongoing,’’ he added.

Wasser’s team tested ivory from a Hong Kong sting and from a 6.5-tonne ivory seizure in Singapore in 2002.

After analyzing the samples’ genes and comparing them against a complex elephant DNA map that covers much of Africa, the researchers were able to trace the Hong Kong samples to elephant populations in Gabon.

The Singapore samples were linked to populations in southern Africa, mainly Zambia. Although some DNA source locations were scattered, the findings point to much more specific origins of illegal poaching than were previously available.

The findings also contradict previous assumptions that ivory dealers will purchase tusks from throughout Africa as they become available.

Instead, Wasser’s study paper suggests that ’’crime syndicates are targeting specific populations for intense exploitation, hitting them hard and fast to satisfy the demands of a particular consignment.’’

After it was revealed that most of the ivory seized in Singapore came from elephants in Zambia, that country�s director of wildlife was replaced and its courts began to impose harsher penalties on ivory smugglers.

’’At the time of the analyses, authorities thought the ivory came from Tanzania and/or the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Our analyses refocused the investigation, allowed authorities to point the finger at Zambia and get them to do something,’’ said Wasser.

Wasser’s team estimates that elephants in sub-Saharan Africa could be ’’virtually extinct’’ across their range by 2020.

If you read the second article you will see that the prediction of extinction by 2020 is being used to draw attention to the need to stop elephant poaching.

The doctor may or may not be anti-hunting but there is no indication either way. Does it matter? We already have millions against us, at least this guy is working to stop the real problem: poaching

It appears that he is working to stop elephant poaching in a new and novel way; he is identifying and drawing attention to the countries that are not protecting their elephants. This seems to be a step in the right direction.

The factors that would have to fall in line to see elephants extinct 12 from now years make the possibility very remote.

Can you imagine how may elephants would be on quota if ALL POACHING were stopped?


Jason