I received an email-bulletin from a well-known booking agent which contained the following suggestions. With the shows approaching, I thought others on the forum might find this of interest. Bill


A note on booking safaris.

2005 taught us that you can not plan your hunts too far in advance. The need to plan your hunts early is more crucial than ever before. Animals like lion, elephant and buffalo are in the highest demand we have seen, and professional hunters who operate in prime areas already have fully booked 2006 calendars.

The best advice we can give if you want to hunt Africa in the next 2 to 4 years is to book as soon as you can. The days of being able to plan a hunt in a prime area only 9 to 12 months in advance are over. In the past it was easy to go to the Safari Club Convention in January and find a safari for the upcoming summer. If you try this now you will be lucky to find any opening, let alone one with a quality safari outfitter.

This is truer with Lion than any other animal in the world. Hunts with two of our three outfitters in Zambia are completely sold out for 2006, and very few openings are available for 2007 and 2008. The same is true for one of our premiere operators in Tanzania.

All over Africa both governments and safari companies alike are imposing stricter quotas on their animals. Fewer lion, leopard, Cape buffalo, sable, roan and other game are on licenses now than they were just a few years ago.

What does all this mean to someone interested in a safari? Simple, stop thinking and make your plans now.

From what little I have seen while nosing around for a safari for this summer, the demand is high and the outfitters are not cutting any deals.

I just managed to pick up a 12 day buff/sable hunt with Swainson's in June of this year because of a recent cancellation.

Regards,

Terry

Bill,

Thanks for posting this...

What are folks take on this sort of thing?

I am not trying to stir the pot here and get an argument going but, I could take this a couple ways. Firstly, are we trying to create an urgency and hence a demand...so hunts get booked ASAP for the next few years out? Or is there really a higher demand than ever(I can believe that easy enough) and are Governments and Safari operators reducing quotas...? And if so are the reduced quotas for better wildlife management, to increase numbers, maintain genetic diversity etc. or to drive up prices.....or both?

Again let me say I am not interested in an argument/flame war...I am just very interested in this topic and accuracy of the agents statement... I know we have many agents who post here and I have no problem with any of you...nor do I want one.

I would like to hear what people think of the future(near & far) of hunts for many of Africas most prized trophies...

Regards,
Dave

Obviously, it doesn't hurt the booking agents to promote a sense of urgency. I haven't heard too much about reduced quotas. But when you realize that a quite a few game farms in ZIM have been taken over, that does reduce the available options.

I honestly think that there is strong demand from the hunting community for African safaris right now.

Look at Chifuti Safaris, their association with Boddington has made them very popular. So popular, that they have taken over much of Swainson's quota and some of Big Five's quota, just to satisfy the demand.

Last year at the Dallas Safari show (which was the first show of the season), many of the outfitters were almost fully booked for that year.

Regards,

Terry

I think there is a lot of truth in the agent's statement. In Ethiopia quotas have been on a downward trend and the criteria for allocating quotas is stricter than before. Census' are done in each concession area every 2 years . Most species are booked into 2007-08 and the SCI Convention hasn't even happened yet. Of course with that many safaris booked ahead there are always a few who will want to postpone or cancel but that's not much comfort to anyone who wants to book an earlier safari.
We first offer the opening to clients already booked further out. This usually fills it.
Rich Elliott

I honestly don't think that any of this is brand new. I think anybody wanting prime dates and animals on a limited quota has always been well advised to book ahead. To me when you know you can go on safari you should set it up ASAP. In most cases booking a couple of years out only requires a small deposit to hold the dates and if something comes up the dates can be changed with no loss of deposit.

In my mind the idea that I'll book a safari once I have the money saved is folly. Figure out how long it will take to get your finances together. If it will take 3 years to save enough money book the safari 3 years out. The small deposit will hold your dates and often your daily fees until the January of the year you are to hunt. Then you have the safari you wanted, the dates you wanted and the animals. Also you are motivated to save your pennies. If you save the money and then book you may very well have to wait a couple of years to get the dates that are best or take whatever is not already booked. When I book my own safaris I want to get the most hunting I can for my dollar. Booking ahead is the only way to assure this.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not suggesting that you put your money down 3 years out with Fly By Night Safaris with no research. Once you find a comapny or agent you are comfortable with though just go for it.

Mark

The demand side is pretty simple. The Baby Boomers are the richest generation in history. Despite the daily doom and gloom we get from the media, the fact is there is an unprecedented amount of cash out there - much of it chasing ever scarcer and more costly luxury items and pursuits, including hunting.

On the supply side, who knows? The governments are going to do whatever they think benefits them in the short term - same with the outfitters. As for the long term, I'm not too optimistic. Not because of the dollars chasing the game, but because of human competition with the wildlife for the land. If you want to hunt a particular species or a place, you should book it and go.

Here’s my opinion for what it’s worth. I don’t claim it to be the whole truth, but some of it may have merit.

1. A delay between cause and consequence

The time between 1997 and Sept. 11, 2001 was golden growth years for the African safari industry. The exchange rate was good. Lots of new players entered the game, spending bucks liberally to make it big in the shortest possible time. Then a fella with the name Atta, and his surviving boss bin Laden, screwed up the world for a whole bunch of people.

Lots of the new PH’s/Outfitters dropped out of the game since the golden growth years. A small percentage survived, and even a smaller percentage thrived, but with regards too numbers, we now have more PH’s / Outfitters than in 1995.

Those PH’s/Outfitters that survived and/or thrived, paid their 1000 + day new-business-dues. They established good practices, build up sound and reliable networks for procuring & marketing and worked very hard, while trying to be very nice. In essence, they learned to swim in the rough seas. Their efforts attracted attention, attention generated interest, and interest created demand.

2. More positive US consumer spending.

The US economy is either recovering, or US citizens has figured out that the current state of the economy is not that immediately life threading. US citizens are therefor more willing to spend on fun stuff. Because the US guys are more willing to spend, the guys on the opposite side of the globe has less bargaining power. Once the opposite guys realize this, they don’t want to be seen as the cheapskates of the hunting world, and are willing to sign the deal at worse than cost less 45%.

3. The world has made piece with the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Venus and Mars.

We all feel a little less certain that the world is about to disintegrate within the next six months. Therefor we shift our minds from trivialities such as geo-politick, an international energy shortage, global warming and Aids, to bread and butter issues. We ponder on critical things such as: which caliber double would suit me best, how much lead is washed of a bonded bullet that produced a instant one shot kill, and if I should hunt in Zambia or Zanzibar.

4. The more world events normalize, the more Africa “uniquenizeâ€.

The more Africa develops it’s own style, by courageous trial and dazzling error, the more people expect the continent to give a few impromptu death spasms and then disappear in a puff of foul smelling smoke and dust. Before this happens though, most international hunters want’s to fulfill one or another lifelong dream – in Africa that is. Once they set foot on this dreadful continent, they’re infected with a bug that causes a lifelong yearning to return to even more dreadful African places. While struggling with the effects of this violent exposure to a continent rapidly in decay (condition called “post safari depressionâ€), they drag their best (and yet uninitiated) friends over here, at the rate of 1:2.

5. The Internet has made the world a smaller place.

More people have access to information about far away, undeveloped places like Namibia, Zambia and South Africa. A growing number of non-Africans realize that South Africa is a sovereign country, and not merely the southern section of the “country†called Africa.

Sure there will be other reasons for the surge in African safari interest – some may even be a devious conspiracy, but I believe what goes down must come up. The safari business has been down for a number of years. Expect an upward surge.

Booking agents always say that there is a shortage of hunts and we all need to book asap.

However, if a fellow is willing to be patient, he can ALWAYS find end of the year leftovers, either due to a cancellation or another hunter who was unsuccessful. Just start contacting SAFARI OPERATORS in September to see what they may have.

However, if you must have a particular animal in a particular concession, it is best to book way ahead.

This is usual byline, but in a couple weeks at Reno you can find out!

If one is looking for a particular concession at a particular time with a particular PH then options are limited. Many folks are in the same boat as me w/business and family stuff scheduled WAY out. And some folks aren't so spontaneus to grab a cencellation with a few weeks notice. As I started getting serious about 07 it quickly became clear that options for what I wanted were limited and would probably be gone before Reno.

Have heard this not only about African game, but also Mule Deer, all North American Sheep, Brown Bear, etc. -- This kind of talk from the Booking Agents and hunting media usually gets much louder right before the annual convention season. It also seems to work, because at the conventions is where we usually see the highest prices on the animals which have the most current interest throughout the industry -- and the scary part is that many guys simply write the check, no matter what it costs.

Sure, its true that the quotas and general availablitiy of many species cycle -- However, while some of this is urgency is based on decreasing availability, there is a lot of overstating the case. Have had very good luck just getting known by outfitters and agents for interest in new opportunities or cancellations on specific types of game. Got a great deal on a Sable combo in 2004 (took a 42 1/2), and a fantastic deal on a Lioness this year -- but, when "looking for deals" you have to be ready to commit, as soon as you hear about it.

Lastly, if costs get particularly prohibitive on a specific species, I've just come to grips with the fact that I can live without it, and go hunt something else that is funt to hunt, or not the current "in-fashion" thing. This has worked very well for me.

In my opinion, the urgency wars are the same with game as they are with real estate, if the sellers can create a "bidding war" they dictate all of the terms.

However, its like anything else. If you have to have the highest quality of the current "in vogue" thing, and there is limited supply, or just a few vendors make up the market, then you have to be willing to cough up whatever the seller demands. Because, unfortunately, there are always others who are willing to pay whatever it costs to get what they want, no matter the price.

Booking Agents, Gunsmiths, and Taxidermist all want your money. They want it now, and they want you to put up the cash as soon as possible.

Yep, there are more hunters in the world. Every year it gets to be more of a pain in the ass to go on a western hunt in the USA. Every year the price goes up in Canada and Alaska.

Dall sheep hunt that were $5000 deals of the century in the early 1990s in Alaska are now twice that. Stone sheep hunts are mostly $20-25K, brown bear hunts have hovered around $10-15K for a while. But Polar bear hunts have tripled since the early 1990s and for good reason.

While there are still $6000 buffalo hunts available in Africa.

I think South Africa will continue to get more expensive, Namibia will raise a little,
West Africa will drop a little, and Tanzania and Botswana will get to the point of breaking and small bookings and then come down.

They can only grow to what the market can take. Some people understand this and some don't. There will continue to be expensive "name" guys and cheaper guys offering the same services. There will continue to be half-ass Outfitters, and there will continue to be scam artist.

The black goverment buracracy will get worse, it will happen everywhere. And 20-30 years from now AIDs will reshape the face and color of African goverments.

I really belive that many of the outfitters create a demand by saying things are tough. I could be wrong. When the price gets too high I just walk away. After all it is only hunting. I love hunting Africa for many reasons. I refuse to be tortured into paying rediculous prices for that experience. Value is an individual reference point.