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A guy I went to High School with has been in Wuhan China the last 50 days. He has been documenting by video on a daily basis and it is much worse than claimed. The Chinese Gov't is keeping a big clamp down on what is being told as usual. People are scared to talk about the virus for fear of being jailed. I didn't give this virus a second thought until I started following his videos. Lots of younger health workers and Doctors in their prime have been dying young people in their 20's-30's. So it isn't just the old, young and weak. I'm still not worried enough to be out buying extra soap and toilet paper but it does sound to be worse than I believed it to be. | |||
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Just don't get old and you'll be fine  Regards, Chuck "There's a saying in prize fighting, everyone's got a plan until they get hit" Michael Douglas "The Ghost And The Darkness" | |||
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That’s it ...panic is out of the hat And life goes on Can’t stop viruses, just eat well, sleep enough and well and overall, try to keep your immune system healthy not overworking and stressing out and then you might have a chance... we are all in the hands of god... " Until the day breaks and the nights shadows flee away " Big ivory for my pillow and 2.5% of Neanderthal DNA flowing thru my veins. When I'm ready to go, pack a bag of gunpowder up my ass and strike a fire to my pecker, until I squeal like a boar. Yours truly , Milan The Boarkiller - World according to Milan PS I have big boar on my floor...but it ain't dead, just scared to move... Man should be happy and in good humor until the day he dies... Only fools hope to live forever “ Hávamál” | |||
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DeadiBob, it would interesting to follow someone of the videos being seen | |||
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We are going hunting. You have to evaluate risk realistically without panic driven emotions. We had friends over the other night that wanted to spread panic and “advise us” to not travel. I asked how many of them had their flu shot this year or ever. None of them had; ever. When we get a vaccine for this newest media driven pandemic, most people will not get it either. Safe hunting and safe travels; wash your hands, don’t eat bats or drink Corona. Larry | |||
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I agree with you. I have flown the last 3 days domestically. It is shocking how empty the airports are. | |||
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Hello Larry, Just a reminder that I was the member here who started this thread worried only about flight cancellations or the chance that RSA and/or Zimbabwe would not allow Americans into their countries,etc. Not once did I say that I was AFRAID of going or even giving it a second thought....as long as I am able to get myself there I AM GOING! Period. A few guys here have said to, "Man up." I responded to them but didn't receive a response. Maybe their wives yelled at them that day and they are exerting their manhood  | |||
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https://slate.com/technology/2...DYkd7I466BtJHsP65SYA This link is to a story that’s very worth reading. | |||
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Alfredo, It seems you and I have the same concerns. As long as the airlines are working, we are going hunting. Unfortunately, there are panic driven fears that could affect all of us. Safe travels Larry | |||
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You too Brother! | |||
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I fly domestically a couple of times a week for work. I’m at DIA right now and I’m estimating there are about 50-60% fewer people at the airport than I am used to seeing. I flew last week also and did not notice a significant decline then. ____________________________________________ "Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life." Terry Pratchett. | |||
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Sorry and now I understand and then what could be better than an extended safari in Africa and you being fully compensated by an airline? ROYAL KAFUE LTD Email - kafueroyal@gmail.com Tel/Whatsapp (00260) 975315144 Instagram - kafueroyal | |||
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ROYAL KAFUE LTD Email - kafueroyal@gmail.com Tel/Whatsapp (00260) 975315144 Instagram - kafueroyal | |||
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Yes...getting stuck there for a few extra weeks would be a good thing for me From your experience, do you see RSA or Zim restricting hunters from the USA? Or even SA Aiines? | |||
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His post yesterday said that things seem to be getting a little better and that President XI actually went to Wuhan yesterday and toured the city. I doubt he would have gone had he been in severe danger. There isn't anyone on the streets at all. His posts are on Facebook. I would go back and start with his earlier posts and read up from there. He has set up a go fund me for the people there. He's a straight shooter. Search "Travis Milne" on Facebook. There are lots of Travis Milnes on Facebook but in his photo he is wearing a red scarf. His Facebook home page has a photo of him with a Tiger. It's pretty interesting hearing from someone firsthand and seeing his video footage of someone who is where it started and an entire city is quarantined. | |||
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Nah. Most of my clients are coming in are through Dubai on Emirates. ROYAL KAFUE LTD Email - kafueroyal@gmail.com Tel/Whatsapp (00260) 975315144 Instagram - kafueroyal | |||
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I hop that you’re right brother! With entire country’s going on lockdown now I am really stressing it | |||
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Many of you are not taking this seriously. This is of huge concern and one of the points that the General Director for the World Health Organization (WHO) made in his last address. If you are young, your parents are at risk, if you are very young, your grandparents are at risk, if you are over 50 or worse, over 60+, you are at significant risk of complications or severe virus, even death. We are in one of the community spread outbreak clusters. There was a proclamation of local emergency. Effective immediately, city facilities will be closed to the public, with the exception of senior services and childcare centers, which will close at the end of business, Friday, March 13. Schools will close next. Almost all companies are closed and people work from home now, if they can. Some have lost their jobs. The health officer said that our county "does not currently have testing available independently of the state and CDC. The amount of testing that is available through the state and CDC is severely limited." In other words, they can't even test fast enough to identify the people and slow the spread. This situation is going to spread city to city and county to county;hence the Pandemic designation by the WHO. | |||
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I don’t think that anyone here is making light of the situation but other than taking precautions, what else could you do? There is no point agonizing about what might happen Be vigilant but go on with life | |||
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Apparently, the RSA authorities are getting ready to meet to decide what to do. We are booked to fly through Johannesburg now I am concerned. We have an Argentine duck hunt booked. I just learned today that Argentina will let us in the country if we self quarantine for 14 days upon arrival. | |||
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You’ve got to admit... That’s FUNNY!  | |||
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So much for the ‘quick trip’. That’s gonna be one very long duck hunt. | |||
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No real numbers of infections are known, but real number of hospitalizations are known, and they are way higher than those of flu. And all those patients need the same: Oxygen. They're running out of beds and respirators in Italy, and having to make decisions on who to treat. Older people and those with underlying conditions (diabetes for example) are drawing the short straws. | |||
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And possibly a quarantine on your return? ROYAL KAFUE LTD Email - kafueroyal@gmail.com Tel/Whatsapp (00260) 975315144 Instagram - kafueroyal | |||
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There was a 10 year reunion for my old hedge fund/pe shop in Boston. March 2 - I did not go. One of my buddies who flew from Monterey Mexico via Dallas to Boston, took train to NYC and then flew back via Dallas. He came down with coronavirus. He has fever and is at home. He is late 30s and good health. He will get thru. But this is all over the place in the us and has been spreading for a while with little to no testing. Watch numbers spike with testing. Mike | |||
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Yes, you are correct. It will be in the tens of thousands before long. The growth curve, so far, is steep, even without sufficient test kits. | |||
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3/8: 564 cases 3/9: 728 cases 3/10: 1,000 cases 3/11: 1,267 cases 3/12: 1,645 cases 3/13: 2,204 cases 3/14: 2,816 cases (as of 9p) | |||
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Not a patch on the common flu ROYAL KAFUE LTD Email - kafueroyal@gmail.com Tel/Whatsapp (00260) 975315144 Instagram - kafueroyal | |||
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https://www.sciencealert.com/t...-big-thing-in-common Twice as contagious and 20x more deadly. Not a good combo for the world. This is what terrifies me https://www.worldometers.info/...virus/country/italy/ https://www.businessinsider.co...ing-the-young-2020-3 Why death rates in Italy are much higher. It overwhelms the healthcare system. Mike | |||
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My wife is a surgeon. She got this yesterday from another doctor who she trained with. He is very switched on. Get Outlook for iOS University of California, San Francisco BioHub Panel on COVID-19 March 10, 2020 Panelists Joe DeRisi: UCSF’s top infectious disease researcher. Co-president of ChanZuckerberg BioHub (a JV involving UCSF / Berkeley / Stanford). Co-inventor of the chip used in SARS epidemic. Emily Crawford: COVID task force director. Focused on diagnostics Cristina Tato: Rapid Response Director. Immunologist. Patrick Ayescue: Leading outbreak response and surveillance. Epidemiologist. Chaz Langelier: UCSF Infectious Disease doc What’s below are essentially direct quotes from the panelists. I bracketed the few things that are not quotes. Top takeaways At this point, we are past containment. Containment is basically futile. Our containment efforts won’t reduce the number who get infected in the US. Now we’re just trying to slow the spread, to help healthcare providers deal with the demand peak. In other words, the goal of containment is to "flatten the curve", to lower the peak of the surge of demand that will hit healthcare providers. And to buy time, in hopes a drug can be developed. How many in the community already have the virus? No one knows. We are moving from containment to care. We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different. 40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population. [We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.] The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu. This assumes no drug is found effective and made available. The death rate varies hugely by age. Over age 80 the mortality rate could be 10-15%. [See chart by age Signe found online, attached at bottom.] Don’t know whether COVID-19 is seasonal but if is and subsides over the summer, it is likely to roar back in fall as the 1918 flu did I can only tell you two things definitively. Definitively it’s going to get worse before it gets better. And we'll be dealing with this for the next year at least. Our lives are going to look different for the next year. What should we do now? What are you doing for your family? Appears one can be infectious before being symptomatic. We don’t know how infectious before symptomatic, but know that highest level of virus prevalence coincides with symptoms. We currently think folks are infectious 2 days before through 14 days after onset of symptoms (T-2 to T+14 onset). How long does the virus last? On surfaces, best guess is 4-20 hours depending on surface type (maybe a few days) but still no consensus on this The virus is very susceptible to common anti-bacterial cleaning agents: bleach, hydrogen peroxide, alcohol-based. Avoid concerts, movies, crowded places. We have cancelled business travel. Do the basic hygiene, eg hand washing and avoiding touching face. Stockpile your critical prescription medications. Many pharma supply chains run through China. Pharma companies usually hold 2-3 months of raw materials, so may run out given the disruption in China’s manufacturing. Pneumonia shot might be helpful. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous. Get a flu shot next fall. Not preventative of COVID-19, but reduces your chance of being weakened, which makes COVID-19 more dangerous. We would say “Anyone over 60 stay at home unless it’s critical”. CDC toyed with idea of saying anyone over 60 not travel on commercial airlines. We at UCSF are moving our “at-risk” parents back from nursing homes, etc. to their own homes. Then are not letting them out of the house. The other members of the family are washing hands the moment they come in. Three routes of infection Hand to mouth / face Aerosol transmission Fecal oral route What if someone is sick? If someone gets sick, have them stay home and socially isolate. There is very little you can do at a hospital that you couldn’t do at home. Most cases are mild. But if they are old or have lung or cardio-vascular problems, read on. If someone gets quite sick who is old (70+) or with lung or cardio-vascular problems, take them to the ER. There is no accepted treatment for COVID-19. The hospital will give supportive care (eg IV fluids, oxygen) to help you stay alive while your body fights the disease. ie to prevent sepsis. If someone gets sick who is high risk (eg is both old and has lung/cardio-vascular problems), you can try to get them enrolled for “compassionate use" of Remdesivir, a drug that is in clinical trial at San Francisco General and UCSF, and in China. Need to find a doc there in order to ask to enroll. Remdesivir is an anti-viral from Gilead that showed effectiveness against MERS in primates and is being tried against COVID-19. If the trials succeed it might be available for next winter as production scales up far faster for drugs than for vaccines. [More I found online.] Why is the fatality rate much higher for older adults? Your immune system declines past age 50 Fatality rate tracks closely with “co-morbidity”, ie the presence of other conditions that compromise the patient’s hearth, especially respiratory or cardio-vascular illness. These conditions are higher in older adults. Risk of pneumonia is higher in older adults. What about testing to know if someone has COVID-19? Bottom line, there is not enough testing capacity to be broadly useful. Here’s why. Currently, there is no way to determine what a person has other than a PCR test. No other test can yet distinguish "COVID-19 from flu or from the other dozen respiratory bugs that are circulating”. A Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) test can detect COVID-19’s RNA. However they still don’t have confidence in the test’s specificity, ie they don’t know the rate of false negatives. The PCR test requires kits with reagents and requires clinical labs to process the kits. While the kits are becoming available, the lab capacity is not growing. The leading clinical lab firms, Quest and Labcore have capacity to process 1000 kits per day. For the nation. Expanding processing capacity takes “time, space, and equipment.” And certification. ie it won’t happen soon. UCSF and UCBerkeley have donated their research labs to process kits. But each has capacity to process only 20-40 kits per day. And are not clinically certified. Novel test methods are on the horizon, but not here now and won’t be at any scale to be useful for the present danger. How well is society preparing for the impact? Local hospitals are adding capacity as we speak. UCSF’s Parnassus campus has erected “triage tents” in a parking lot. They have converted a ward to “negative pressure” which is needed to contain the virus. They are considering re-opening the shuttered Mt Zion facility. If COVID-19 affected children then we would be seeing mass departures of families from cities. But thankfully now we know that kids are not affected. School closures are one the biggest societal impacts. We need to be thoughtful before we close schools, especially elementary schools because of the knock-on effects. If elementary kids are not in school then some hospital staff can’t come to work, which decreases hospital capacity at a time of surging demand for hospital services. Public Health systems are prepared to deal with short-term outbreaks that last for weeks, like an outbreak of meningitis. They do not have the capacity to sustain for outbreaks that last for months. Other solutions will have to be found. What will we do to handle behavior changes that can last for months? Many employees will need to make accommodations for elderly parents and those with underlying conditions and immune-suppressed. Kids home due to school closures [Dr. DeRisi had to leave the meeting for a call with the governor’s office. When he returned we asked what the call covered.] The epidemiological models the state is using to track and trigger action. The state is planning at what point they will take certain actions. ie what will trigger an order to cease any gatherings of over 1000 people. Where do you find reliable news? The John Hopkins Center for Health Security site. Which posts daily updates. The site says you can sign up to receive a daily newsletter on COVID-19 by email. [I tried and the page times out due to high demand. After three more tries I was successful in registering for the newsletter.] The New York Times is good on scientific accuracy. Observations on China Unlike during SARS, China’s scientists are publishing openly and accurately on COVID-19. While China’s early reports on incidence were clearly low, that seems to trace to their data management systems being overwhelmed, not to any bad intent. Wuhan has 4.3 beds per thousand while US has 2.8 beds per thousand. Wuhan built 2 additional hospitals in 2 weeks. Even so, most patients were sent to gymnasiums to sleep on cots. Early on no one had info on COVID-19. So China reacted in a way unique modern history, except in wartime. Every few years there seems another: SARS, Ebola, MERS, H1N1, COVID-19. Growing strains of antibiotic resistant bacteria. Are we in the twilight of a century of medicine’s great triumph over infectious disease? "We’ve been in a back and forth battle against viruses for a million years." But it would sure help if every country would shut down their wet markets. As with many things, the worst impact of COVID-19 will likely be in the countries with the least resources, eg Africa. See article on Wired magazine on sequencing of virus from Cambodia. | |||
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As new cases slow down, Wuhan is already closing one of their emergency hospitals. At the rate the virus is spreading, the common flu will claim more lives this year. This is going to play out and we will survive. ___________________ Just Remember, We ALL Told You So. | |||
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True. But economically many people will suffer. Thank you Larry for the information above. | |||
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They just closed the 'last' one out of 14 new temporary ones that they built.
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There is a rumor that the Chines unleashed this after they have already gotten the vaccine for it. They did not care about loosing a few of their own people to bring the West down to its knees economically!!?? | |||
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I think you are right. I read where china will withhold some medical supplies to other countries. Countries are looking for different suppliers of raw materials. China supplies like 80% of the raw products to make medicine. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> "You've got the strongest hand in the world. That's right. Your hand. The hand that marks the ballot. The hand that pulls the voting lever. Use it, will you" John Wayne | |||
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So if they already have a vaccine, the evil West should be able to make their own As well. Screw them. | |||
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Just received word from SA outfitter that a travel restriction is going into effect on several countries including the US. Anyone confirm this? | |||
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Cyril Ramaphosa lists countries on South Africa’s travel ban “We will limit contact between persons who may be infected. We’re imposing a travel on ban on foreign nationals from Italy, Iran, South Korea, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and China. We have cancelled visas from those countries. We advise against all travel to the EU, the United States, China, Iran, the UK and South Korea – this is effective immediately. “Any foreign national who has visited these countries in the past 20 days, will be denied a visa. Anyone returning to South Africa from these high-risk countries will be quarantined for 14 days. All travellers who entered SA from these nations since mid-February, are asked to get themselves tested.” Cyril Ramaphosa Coronavirus could lead to ‘national lockdown’ The UK, Germany and Italy are among the countries most frequented by our COVID-19 returnees. They also feature on the list of places from where travellers have been banned from visiting South Africa: The decision was made as calls to put Mzansi on “lockdown” intensified on social media. Calls to shut schools down and encourage South Africans to work from home are being echoed across the country. >>>>>>>>>>>>>> "You've got the strongest hand in the world. That's right. Your hand. The hand that marks the ballot. The hand that pulls the voting lever. Use it, will you" John Wayne | |||
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The Accurate Reloading Forums THE ACCURATE RELOADING.COM FORUMS Hunting African Big Game Hunting Will the Coronavirus Affect my Hunt in April??
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