I hear Tanzania is in a drought, but it is rainly heavily in South Africa. What are conditions like in the Luangwa Valley of Zambia? Does it look like it will be a good safari year?

Normal to wetter than normal conditions in southern Zambia. Drier than normal in northern Zambia, but recent rains have corrected that.



1. Several poor consecutive rainy seasons have resulted in the development of severe drought across much of eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia and southern Somalia. The poor performance of this year’s March-May season and the failure of this year’s October-December season have resulted in rainfall totals for the year 2005 that are only 20 to 50 percent of the long term mean, and annual rainfall deficits of 250 to 500 mm. This drought has resulted in crop failures, pasture degradation, water shortages and has raised serious food security concerns for the region. To the south, an early end to last year’s season has combined with seasonal rains that are 1 ½ months late over the central Tanzania to result in yearly totals for 2005 that are only 50 to 60 percent of normal. This has resulted in the development of hydrological drought. The drought is resulting in serious problems in the Rufiji basin. While eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia and Somalia remained dry, significant rains fell over Tanzania last week. 10 to 50 mm of rainfall helped to ease dryness over northeastern Tanzania, with heavier amounts reported over the higher elevations of the interior. Additional rains are expected, however much more rain is needed. Scattered showers are possible over southeastern Kenya. However, long term drought will persist for at least the next 3 months.

2. Drier than normal conditions since October has resulted in the development of drought across western Kenya, much of Tanzania and the Lake Victoria Basin. In the bimodal areas of southern Kenya, northwestern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania, the short rains have failed. Across the Lake Victoria Basin, including eastern Uganda, northwestern Tanzania and far eastern Rwanda, rainfall since October 1 has totaled only 100 to 250 mm. This is only 40 to 60 percent of normal, and has caused crop and pasture stress. Below normal rainfall, among other factors, has contributed to low water levels on Lake Victoria. Water levels have dropped to post 1960 levels, and are the lowest recoded since 1951. Some passenger ships failed to find docking stations due to the shallow water levels in recent weeks. People had to be ferried off of ships by small boats. Recent rains have provided some relief. 10 to 50+ mm of rainfall around Lake Victoria broke the dry spell that has lasted 4 to 8 weeks. However, deficits of 50 to 200+ mm still remain. Over northeastern Tanzania, showers moistened top soils and reduced dryness. Across Tanzania’s interior, widespread rainfall (40 – 80+ mm) signaled the start of the season. However, these rains did start 4 to 6 weeks late, and deficits stand at 100 to 150 mm. Therefore, more rain is needed. The best chances for rain during the period will be over interior Tanzania, where seasonal rains will continue and further improvement is expected. Scattered showers are possible around Lake Victoria, however little in the way of improvement is expected. Large deficits are likely to persist.

3. Seasonal rains across Djibouti and the surrounding area have been erratic and lighter than normal. This has resulted in pasture degradation and possible water shortages. Rainfall totals for 2005 are around half of the long term mean. The next chance for relief will be when the March-May rains set in.

4. Heavy rains soaked southern Malawi, central Mozambique and adjacent areas during the last week of December and the first week of January. These rains saturated soils and raised river levels. Flooding was reported in Malawi on the Shire, the Nyamazire, and the Lalanje rivers. Locally heavy rains have continued to fall across the region, as well as other parts of the Zambezi Basin. On the lower Zambezi, some flooding has been reported. However, the flooding has been minor. More serious flooding has been reported on the smaller rivers. This has been a problem particularly in central Mozambique between the Save and the Pungue rivers. Roads in some of these areas have become impassable due to flash flooding. Additional rains are expected across the area. Heavy rains may trigger additional flooding across central Mozambique, southern Malawi, northern and eastern Zimbabwe, southern Zambia and the Caprivi Strip of Namibia. Localized crop damage, ponding in fields and soil erosion are also possible. The main risks are of flash flooding and of smaller rivers bursting their banks. The larger rivers need to be monitored as the waters from the smaller rivers feed into them, raising their levels. Despite some of the problems, the abundant moisture and favorable temperatures have resulted in very good growing conditions across southeastern Africa’s growing and pasture areas. This bodes well for the region as a whole.

5. Recent heavy rains have resulted in high antecedent moisture levels and localized flooding in Namibia. Torrential rains during the first week of January were followed by heavy rains on the second week. More rainfall is expected. As a result, flooding and localized crop damage is a possibility during the early part of the period. A break in the rains is possible during the end of the period.

6. Abundant rains over the past several days have eased dryness caused by a late onset of the seasonal rains across portions of western Tanzania. Additional rains should further reduce moisture deficits and improve crop, pasture and water supply prospects in the area. Recent rains have also eased dryness and moisture deficits over portions of southwestern Uganda adjacent to Lake Victoria.



Regards,

Terry

Scott

Actually Masialand now has loads of water. RSA has good rains and Zambia where you will be has the Luangwa. If it is a very dry year the animals will just be more concentrated along the Luangwa which flows all year. Don't worry.

Mark

SBT

It has been raining like hell lately in Zambia generally ...

WE (personally) are located in Southern Kafue Natiopnal Park region, the ranch is very wet being located in a flood plain.

My nephew Dene is presently land locked on the ranch with road in and out very waterlogged. With lots of luck and some good management it is possibly get out by road to Choma BUT a four wheel drive and winch would be required.

I would hazard a guess the (Luangwa Valley) is similar as the rain has been quite widespread in Zambia. It should be very green if this weather continues the bush ewill be thick into late April May period possibly !!!

Good luck with the Luangwa valley, it is a great wildlife region

Peter

Thanks you guys. Terry, some of the stuff you find amazes me!

quote:

Originally posted by SBT:
Terry, some of the stuff you find amazes me!

I agree. Terry is one of the true assets on this forum.

Jason

If you ever want a general overview of the climate of a country go here BBC Weather

If you want a general overview of a country go here BBC Country Profiles

Regards,

Terry