I have been thinking about this a lot. My own thoughts are not very PC, what do you think?

quote:

Originally posted by D99:
I have been thinking about this a lot. My own thoughts are not very PC, what do you think?

I'll just focus on the impact to the population.

Continent wide, the average numbers you hear for infection rates are in the 40%-60% range. So say half are HIV+.

From there it becomes a mathematical equation executed over a time-line of generations, i.e.: of those infected, how many can they infect? How many children will they have? What percentage of the next generation will be infected?
When will they figure out that sex is what's infecting them?

My guess is that in 10-15 years there will be about 30% of the population left on the continent.

My thoughts are also not very PC, but here goes. The whites will get most of Southern Africa back within 20 years. I hope there will be something left by then.

quote:

Originally posted by Tembo:
My thoughts are also not very PC, but here goes. The whites will get most of Southern Africa back within 20 years. I hope there will be something left by then.

Given half a chance, mother nature has a resilient way of rebounding. They just have to keep a seed-crop for the next generations.

A farmer in Zim told me way back in '91, and I quote, "Aids will be the Salvation of Africa, as it is the only form of population control that works"

I am afraid the answer for Africa is that there will be no long lasting stability, it is entering an age of unreasonableness.

It is as valid a question for the rest of the world as it is for Africa. By making sure that someone with this (HIV) lives as long as possible, we are writing a sentence for mankind. Until there is a cure that destroys the cause, prolonging life at all costs is not working, at least without some form of containment.

I guess that is not to PC either.

I might be wrong, but two seprate studies recently found that +/- 45% of the people who die in SA die from AIDS related diseases. The people conducting the study said it might be higher, but doctors usually dont write AIDS or TB on the death certificate, but sometimes just the cause of death, ie. suffocation.

Some of my friend who studied medicine said they would have a ward with 27 people and 25 was HIV positive. Another one had a ward of 27 and all of them was HIV +. They (friends) said the worst was if they told the black guys to use condoms during intercourse, they just laughed at them.

There is a belief that raping young girls (2 years and younger) it will cure the disease.

I personally think more than 55% of the SA population have got AIDS. The goverment just do not want to aknowledge it. How can they if our president say there isn't such a thing as AIDS?

RM

Those poor souls.

The bitter irony in this is that the trajedy of the HIV virus and its destructiveness will be superceeded by that of overpopulation and the misery it will inevitably cause once a cure is found and implemented.

There are no winners in this one!

Enjoy and respect the life you have here, and that's no "Bravo Sierra"!

Jeff

A young PH in RSA said it is working but taking too long. That is not a PC statement.

It won't have any effect. The US is just pissing away money.

AIDS is having an effect already, as evidenced by the number of orphans in Africa.
And I do not think that LiveAid, or Bono, or Bush or anyone can fix the problem by throwing money at it. Until black leaders in Africa nd the rest of the world accept and admit that their culture is responsible for the increase in AIDS / HIV, nothing will change. Same thing here with the GAY radicals that promote a promiscuous lifestyle.

Unlike smallpox or TB, AIDS is a disease that can be eradicated in one or two generations.

Arrogance and ignorance are the cause of this pandemic.

Jeff

When it all comes out in the wash I doubt that AIDs or any other desease will have any long term effect on Africa..Just a minor culling operation, then the population will rebuild.

A PH buddy of mine in RAS, told me after a few drinks, at one time we thought Aids would save africa from its self, but I now think it will not.

When you look at Africa from the inside out, from a hunting area or game farm, it looks pretty good. You look at it from the outside in such as the boarder crossing between the Northern Province and Zim at Messena and you see the trucks like up with prostitute's in every truck and the sick people lined up along the roads, it looks pretty bad.

Ole mother earth will take care of the population, it just may not do it very quickly. Maybe not in my life time, but once some of these virus become airbore and can't be controlled, then it will take care of it very quickly.

Not to add fuel to the fire, but as a friend of mine puts it:

"Don't worry, they'll make more."

Years ago, before it was Zim. At a misson clinic
I saw a aid give an injection to about 15 people
with the same syringe.(sp?) and needle. Mabey better now. No I am not PC about anything.I do not think even AIDS can save it.

While it's not PC for a different reason, and I may start a firestorm by pointing this out, the AIDS problem in Africa, while tragic, is probably no where near as bad as popularly believed.

The governments and NGOs have lots of reasons to exaggerate the scale of the problem. Dig around on the net; horror stories abound, and good epidemiological research does not. What little there is is pretty skeptical of the government numbers. Quick example: the claims of 30% infection are based on infection rates of PEOPLE TESTED IN CLINICS. Well, of course! They're sick, or they wouldn't be in the clinic. But it's unfair to extrapolate that onto the population at large.

Anyway, things are bad, but probably not as bad as is widely believed.

As a military man, pulling into a foreign port or about to do duty on foreign lands we all get the AIDS brief.

The brief usually starts with " this place has a 80% HIV infection rate in prostitutes", and ends with "9 out of 10 of the prostitues are crossdressing he-shes".

I never saw one sick person in Vietnam, but the CIA beleives 8,000,000 people have the disease there.

In Africa they say 32% in Swaziland and Botswana, and 20% for the rest of the contenent. I don't know what to believe, but if you believe those quotes, Europeans will own it again soon.

(ok, didn't get to my point).

Your right pertinax it could all be BS, or it could be a reverse Mau Mau in 10-20 years, who knows.

In Thailand I saw thousands of sick people.

In Dubai, the Russian girls tell me they don't have sex with Asian or African men, only UAE Arabs and Whites. I am sure some of them get sent back to Moscow preparing to die in 10 years.

Here in Spain, I am unsure of the health situation of the brothels. They are huge mansion/hotel outfits most with 50-80 girls. A mix of South American and Eastern Europe, a few Spanish, Italian, and Moroccan thrown in. My corpsmen tell me that no one on our base has caught AIDS in 7 years.

Africa is different, no testing, no condoms, and shared needles. What will come of it? The Zimbabwe Mugabes of the world, shouldn't force the whites into reverse Apartheid, the stack won't be the same 10 years from now.

I think their birth rate is staying ahead of the curve.

Wannago And Teat Hound have it right. They are reproducing at a rate far ahead of the death rate. Tough immune systems!I read some where that in the early 60's the population of Kenya was about a million. Today it is around 20 million. The time to go is now.

I'm a little surprised that some of you believe that the possibility of a decline (even a severe one) in the native populations of sub-Saharan Africa will result in the de facto "ownership" of those lands by whites, like a sort of passive reconquista. I don't think that anything of the sort would happen because of the massive and neverending guilt trip thrust upon whites because of apartheid, "racism", and other forms of evil peculiar to caucasians. Some of you may not have noticed the ever burgeoning numbers of non-whites immigrating to the U.S., Europe, Australia who upon attaining citizenship have full political powers. So given the fact that whites are slowly losing the ability to "own" their own lands, it is laughable to think that they will regain any kind of outright control of an African country. The world would not allow it because it would look too much like a return of apartheid.

Having just returned this week fom the RSA I was witness to many things while there. One of those was while traveling to Bloomfontein on some business I saw many, many fresh graves. These were in the Black cemeteries. It was way above what you would expect to see normally. This was not an isolated event as I saw 3 areas like this. It seems that it is traveling at a fast rate and there is no end in site, except for those that have it.

Cunningham, I saw the same thing last summer. Fresh graves being dug by the hundreds. We talked to a guy in Ellisras who owns a casket making business. He's had to expand his business 4 times in the last 5 years to keep up with demand. He told us that the black population absolutely refuses to use condoms, even when "educated" about the AIDS virus. A black woman will not have sex with a man with a condom because she believes he is "sick". I disagree with Serval's assesment that the white Africans would care what the world would think. The vast majority that I met couldn't care less about world opinion.

I hear what you guys are saying about birth rates exceeding death rates, but have you seen a cememtery in harare?

Tembo-
I don't know what whites who reside in Africa think of their situation living there. They may not care one whit about world opinion in the abstract, but world opinion put to political use in the form of economic boycotts, social strictures, and general defamation had a dramatic effect on the nation of South Africa when it was under white rule. My post was addressing the effect of multicultural social engeneering which doesn't take heed to what small pockets of white folks may think of it.

As far as the ratio of births to deaths among blacks in Africa goes, apparently the births still greatly exceed deaths. However, you have to factor in the effects of many other diseases as well as HIV/AIDS and the rampant rate of murder in the cities and skirmishes between tribes to get a good handle on the demographic changes that may be taking place.

I don't believe that it will be for those Europeans or North Americans to decide who will rule Africa.

It will be for those there when there is a powerful enough Euro voice in Africa to make a difference.

Your damn right about white Africans not caring about what Euros and Americans think. Would you? Ever see anything other than sarcasm and a total lack of pity toward the Zimbabwe farm seizures?

The liberal news media, supports uneducated views.

While driving around Ethiophia I saw numerous brothels doing a brisk business. When I inquired about the risk of aids, I was told that Ethopian men are to strong to contact aids....

quote:

Originally posted by serval:
As far as the ratio of births to deaths among blacks in Africa goes, apparently the births still greatly exceed deaths.

Births may exceed deaths but how many of the new-borns have aids? Aids is not a racial disease it effects all races and unlike some people chose to believe it is not only spread by Gays.

Read up on how the disease is and is not spread you will be in for an eye opener.

Swede,

We all understand how the disease is spread, but simple native African ignorance is the common denominator.

Of course the babies, have it. Nothing worse than coming into this world with a time bomb ticking on your life.

quote:

Originally posted by D99:
Your damn right about white Africans not caring about what Euros and Americans think. Would you?

I agree with you D99; I wouldn't care what the rest of the world thinks if I were a white farmer down there. While we cried about apartheid, why aren't we now standing up for the rights of the white farmers? Instead, we're rewarding these hoodlum governments by forgiving their debts. Look at our immigration problems (USA and Europe) . . . we have no right preaching about anything.

D99-
The fact is that Europeans and North Americans as well as Asians have the political and economic might to effectively decide who will control Africa. I am not entirely convinced that there is a majority of whites in Africa who really realize or care about their plight, maybe I'm wrong on that one. It's hard to know what they think if you're living outside of Africa, though, because, you're right, there is virtually no reporting in the mass media in the West about the "farm seizures" (read: killing and displacement of whites by blacks) in Zimbabwe AND SOUTH AFRICA (don't overlook that it's happening there too and on the increase). It's a very frightening and sad situation that is going on and seems that noone outside of Africa knows about it or cares if they do.

The Moroccans told me recently when I was there, they where hoping Spain would build a bridge to Morocco. God I hope not, can you imagine the flood of illegals once that 20 mile safety net was lifted.

I had heard there were about 2 million illegals in Spain and Portugal.

My girlfriend is from Sweden and she told me there were NW Africans trying to seek asylum there.

Swede-
I'm not sure why you would conclude from my post that I am under the misguided impression that HIV/AIDS is a strictly homosexual or negro disease. The topic of this discussion is how AIDS is going to change the future of Africa by its effect on the native population, so that is what I was addressing. I have studied the biology and spread of diseases to a limited extent and am familiar with HIV/AIDS transmission, so I don't think there will be any real eye openers unless there is a change in medical opinion.
As far as the effect of newborns with AIDS, that is an epidemiological calculation that I am in no position to make. My point was that the birthrate of healthy infants MAY exceed the spread of AIDS overall, at least for the time it takes to find a cure (if that ever occurs).

One of the things that I believe will become more and more evident, as AIDS related deaths take their toll, is the shifting of the population toward younger survivers. As the wisdom of older ones is lost, so is their restraint in human relations. Imagine an army of 18 yr old survivers with no restraint, and an AK. Or a machete. I wouldn't wish that on ______ .

There is little that can be done in all this unless someone is sitting on a CURE, What is the medical term, triage, you save what CAN BE saved. We need to get it right, cause it is coming to a theatre near you soon.

Back in 1990 I read an article in the International Defence Review (which is a highly respected military periodical) which had an article on the strategic implication of aids in Africa. The article was speculating about what might happen WHEN (not if) the human populations of Africa crash - and one of the options, that they put forward, is that there may be another neo-colonial land grab but this time by land-hungry third world nations, such as India (hence the Indian military buildup at that time). However, I don't think that the authors foresaw that India would also have its' own Aids epidemic.

However, what sparked off the discussion that led to this article was that satellite photography of parts of Africa, and they specifically mentioned areas around Uganda, showed large areas of jungle/bush regrowth and when they investigated, on the ground, they found that these areas of regrowth had been depopulated by Aids - and this was back in 1990!

Yeh, I suspect that if there is ever to be any kind of neo-colonialism in Africa, the Indians or Chinese would be good bets. It certainly won't come from the emasculated West.
That satellite photograph info is interesting. It is a devastating disease!

Being a Pragmatist, I think this whole thing is culturally driven as is Cancer here in the Western hemisphere.

The natural / cultural tendancy towards promiscuous behavior and lower levels of education spreads HIV....Our cultural tendencies of sedintary lifestyles, too many nutrient dense (rich foods) and creation of high levels of pollutants has given rise to the current epidemic of cancer here in North America and Europe.

Any disease when released into / propagated by a population sueecptible to its strengths will proliferate.

Sadly Africa is ripe for an AIDS epidemic - this disease chooses it's prey it would seem.

Jeff