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The Million Dollar Question for you Guys

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02 April 2020, 18:31
Big Wonderful Wyoming
The Million Dollar Question for you Guys
quote:
Originally posted by nmhunter4life:
quote:
Originally posted by Beretta682E:
quote:
Originally posted by The Norwegian:
quote:
Originally posted by Beretta682E:
In the real world international travel is going to be very difficult for next 18-24 months.

Us is the epicenter of this virus - millions of cases is the conservative assumption. If regional us states today have imposed travel restrictions on us citizen from different states anyone think global travel is going to be free and open.

China has seen an influx of new cases from international travels after massively controlling local cases.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...ries&pgtype=Homepage


Until all governments from us to zim to China to India to German to nearly every country get comfortable they are not reimporting a virus they managed to control at exorbitant economic costs they are simply going to impose draconian controls.

Airlines with business models built on hub international travel - emirates, ethiad, Turkish are going to be in a world of hurt.

Let’s hope there are rapid test that can be administered at entry points.

Get used to living in the twilight zone version of international travel for next 18-24 months.

Big regional economies like US China India will see their vast population focus on local travel. Places like Maldives are screwed.

Mike


Mike, I am afraid you are spot on here ... Time will show, but this is the hard facts on travelling or being able to travel from one country to another one and being allowed to get back home ..

Morten


Yup

There is way too much unrealistic thinking that come July we will all be getting on planes headed to Africa.

Global trade will bounce back. Not global travel. People are how this virus moves and only way to control it is he movement of people.

Look at all these poor people stuck on cruise ships no one wants to take in and even provide aid to friendly countries.

All hub travel is seriously screwed. Why would anyone want to hang out at Dubai airport and be in a place where there are travelers from all over going all over. The worst spot to control a virus.

Any travel will be point to point with testing before getting on a place and at point of entry.

The hub travel model is seriously f@cked - not built for a world of pandemics.

Everything will be domestic for the short term.

This is a new world going forward for the short term.

Unless once is vaccinated borders are not going to open and that is 18 months away.

Mike



I agree. I don't see any international hunting happening this year and we will be lucky to have things open up in 2021. There are really only 2 options to control this disease. #1 A vaccine that is very effective, or #2 herd immunity where 80% of people have contracted the disease and are no longer susceptible. Until then as soon as the restrictions are lifted this thing is going to rear its ugly head right back up and come back. This virus is quite easy to transmit and the only measures to control it are economically devastating.

At some point you have to decide if the cure is worse than the disease. If everyone is out of work for many months and their savings in the stock market are destroyed you will have people dying of suicide, drug abuse and alcoholism. Poverty kills people for a myriad of different reasons. The repercussions of the cure may end up being worse than letting the disease run its course. All we can do is guess at this point. Sweden is taking a very different approach to the rest of the world and within a month we will be able to see how that is going.


Yes we live in a poverty state, I can already see the toll that a few weeks are taking.
03 April 2020, 13:27
infinito
quote:
Originally posted by Use Enough Gun:
As I used to tell clients in regards to the exact cost of litigation: "If I only had a crystal ball. . . . . . ." Big Grin


......it would be a very, very expensive crystal ball"


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04 April 2020, 05:11
ledvm
quote:
The repercussions of the cure may end up being worse than letting the disease run its course.


My money is on history bearing that out to be the case. Twenty-five years ago we would have never considered shutting the country down as we have. Those actions are going to have far reaching implications.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House

No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991.
04 April 2020, 21:01
fulvio
quote:
Originally posted by ledvm:
quote:
The repercussions of the cure may end up being worse than letting the disease run its course.


My money is on history bearing that out to be the case. Twenty-five years ago we would have never considered shutting the country down as we have. Those actions are going to have far reaching implications.


If the lockdown gets extended to the fast food joints, e.g. McDonalds, Wendy's, KFC, Burger King, etc. there are going to be quite a few starving folks around. Big Grin
05 April 2020, 00:16
Baker458
If we are able to travel internationally, YES, I'll be going to Africa! Was supposed to leave 4/10 with my Daughter for a hunt with SSG in Zim and I certainly hope to do that hunt this year. My bet is that we'll be wide open for travel by June. Now whether Zim lets us come in......

Lane: "25 years ago we would have never considered shutting down the country as we have"
Darn right. But how about just 11 years ago? H1N1 2009-2010. In the United States CDC estimates 60.8 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, 12,469 DEATHS.
I hadn't remembered how bad it was at all, had to look it up.

So what was the main difference, that we didn't shut down during H1N1? Best reason I can figure; The media didn't want to get rid of Barack Obama.
05 April 2020, 00:42
Jefffive
quote:
Originally posted by Baker458:
If we are able to travel internationally, YES, I'll be going to Africa! Was supposed to leave 4/10 with my Daughter for a hunt with SSG in Zim and I certainly hope to do that hunt this year. My bet is that we'll be wide open for travel by June. Now whether Zim lets us come in......

Lane: "25 years ago we would have never considered shutting down the country as we have"
Darn right. But how about just 11 years ago? H1N1 2009-2010. In the United States CDC estimates 60.8 million cases, 274,000 hospitalizations, 12,469 DEATHS.
I hadn't remembered how bad it was at all, had to look it up.

So what was the main difference, that we didn't shut down during H1N1? Best reason I can figure; The media didn't want to get rid of Barack Obama.


The main difference is that you couldn't walk around spreading H1N1 for two weeks without having any symptoms.


"If you’re innocent why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”- Donald Trump
05 April 2020, 00:50
Opus1
Up to three quarters of flu infections (including H1N1 and H3N2) are asymptomatic and those with no symptoms are able to transfer the virus.

https://www.clinicaladvisor.co...-cases-asymptomatic/


___________________

Just Remember, We ALL Told You So.
05 April 2020, 01:11
Jefffive
quote:
Originally posted by Opus1:
Up to three quarters of flu infections (including H1N1 and H3N2) are asymptomatic and those with no symptoms are able to transfer the virus.

https://www.clinicaladvisor.co...-cases-asymptomatic/


quote:
“A large number of well individuals mixing widely in the community might, even if only mildly infectious, make a substantial contribution to onward transmission. This might have important implications for the effectiveness of case isolation and social distancing measures in reducing overall transmission rates,” Hornby wrote.


Lot of mights.

There's no remaining doubt with COVID-19.


"If you’re innocent why are you taking the Fifth Amendment?”- Donald Trump
05 April 2020, 01:15
Slider
This year is a Bust. I would agree with 18+ months down the road.
05 April 2020, 01:40
Opus1
I am headed back to Namibia as soon as air travel is opened back up.


___________________

Just Remember, We ALL Told You So.
05 April 2020, 03:41
Alfredo C
quote:
Originally posted by Opus1:
I am headed back to Namibia as soon as air travel is opened back up.


Same here with ZimbabweWink
07 April 2020, 17:08
Saeed
Norway is opening up and going back to normal, gradually.

I understand Australia is going to do the same!

Let us hope things brighten up for the world!


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07 April 2020, 17:16
crane
Death numbers in US no where close to the doom and gloom alphabet soup health agencies-WHO,CDC,Hopkins,NIH,etc. People here in the flyover portion of the US are over this. We have 319 cases in a state of a million. The Cure is definitely worse than the virus here and tolerance is waning. Hoping to have these restrictions lifted soon.
07 April 2020, 19:04
Alfredo C
quote:
Originally posted by Saeed:
Norway is opening up and going back to normal, gradually.

I understand Australia is going to do the same!

Let us hope things brighten up for the world!


+1!

That's what I say Saeed, I'm not ruling out my hunt this year yet. Allot can happen
07 April 2020, 20:05
The Norwegian
quote:
Originally posted by Saeed:
Norway is opening up and going back to normal, gradually.

I understand Australia is going to do the same!

Let us hope things brighten up for the world!



Confirming what Saeed is saying. Read my comments on the Africa Covid 19 thread.

However, the Government stresses that if the partial re-opening show a increase in the virus spreading again, they will close again - and that this close down will be harder than ever. So no need to relax. The 2020 will be different than 2019 the whole year. Reports coming from doctors now after the intial studies also paints a picture that this is a virus you do not want to have... show signs of permanent damages to the brain and lounges...


So - by all means keep distance and washing your hands..


Morten


The more I know, the less I wonder !