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Tourists won't be back in SA anytime soon & fears of future travel bans do damage
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https://www.businessinsider.co...the-long-run-2021-12



Tourists won't be back in SA anytime soon – and fears of future travel bans do long-term damage

Luke Daniel , Business Insider SA
Dec 04, 2021, 07:12 AM


Travel to and from South Africa has been severely disrupted by restrictions imposed by more than 70 countries in the wake of the Omicron variant's discovery.
South Africa's already embattled tourism industry was betting on a busy summer season to recoup losses incurred during a year of restricted travel.
But following Omicron's detection, more than R1 billion worth of bookings have been cancelled.
And holidaymakers are likely to rethink travel to South Africa once restrictions are lifted.
For more stories go to www.BusinessInsider.co.za.
International travel bans imposed on South Africa following the discovery of a new Covid-19 variant have decimated the tourism sector's hopes of a busy summer season. Psychological effects of this swift global response are likely to dissuade holidaymakers for much longer.

South Africa's reeling tourism sector, which supported close to 800,000 jobs and contributed more than R130 billion to the country's economy prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, had hoped to recoup some losses between December and March.

This optimism followed the relaxation of travel restrictions in October. The United Kingdom, which has traditionally served as the country's main source market for tourists, removed South Africa from its restrictive red list following months of hard lobbying. Much of Europe and North America had also dropped prohibitive quarantine measures.


Travel queries and bookings flooded in. Early estimates suggested that some 300,000 British passport holders were likely to spend summer in South Africa. Add in heightened interest from other key markets, like Germany and the United States – which supplied more than 65,000 visitors in December 2019 – and South Africa's tourism prospects looked good.

But this all changed on Thursday 25 November. On that day, South Africa's Department of Health and scientists from the Network for Genomic Surveillance revealed that a new, highly mutated Covid-19 variant, Omicron, had been detected in Gauteng.


A flurry of bans imposed on travellers from South Africa followed. The UK re-added South Africa and neighbouring countries to its red list, requiring all returning residents to quarantine in a government-run hotel. The floodgates opened and by Monday, within 72 hours of the Omicron announcement, nearly 40 countries had imposed restrictions on travellers from South Africa.

The travel bans were blasted by scientists and President Cyril Ramaphosa as unjustified, discriminatory, and irrational.

It was argued that South Africa was being punished for its superior genomic surveillance measures and that Omicron had already begun to spread in other parts of the world, undetected. This turned out to be likely.

But the "knee-jerk" reaction to impose immediate travel bans on South Africa led to more than R1 billion worth of summer holiday bookings being cancelled within 48 hours. The latest figure is likely to be much higher. By Friday, the number of countries with restrictions on South African travellers had grown to more than 70. Omicron has been detected in 30 countries, many of which have imposed bans on South African travellers.

"The bookings cancelled through the overseas wholesale [and] retail channel are largely lost for good as risk mitigation demands these players to wait for stability," Martin Wiest, the CEO of Tourvest Destination Management, told Business Insider South Africa.

"Most of our partners have cancelled everything to the end of January/February with no new bookings being taken currently not only leading to immediate loss of income, but also a delayed recovery period."

Wiest believes that the newly imposed travel bans have pushed the recovery of South Africa's tourism sector back by between three to six months.

And while the immediate loss of income is disastrous for an industry which was already hanging by a thread and relying on the summer season to claw back losses, the international reaction to the discovery of a new variant will likely have long-lasting psychological effects.

Travel bans imposed on South Africa as a result of scientists' detection of Omicron come after a similar discovery was made almost a year ago. In December 2020, South African scientists detected a variant which would come to be known as Beta.

That discovery led to South African travellers becoming the most restricted in the world in just four months. It kept the country on the UK's red list for 10 months, costing the South African economy around R8 billion in lost tourism spend, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council.

The fear, for South Africa's tourism industry, is that the response to Omicron creates further anxiety among future holidaymakers. These travellers will likely think twice about coming to South Africa, fearing that the detection of a new variant could immediately result in costly cancellations and disruptions.

"We've seen 70% of our December files either cancel or postpone further into 2022," Craig Smith, the managing director of New Frontiers, told Business Insider South Africa.

"Even if restrictions were lifted this week, it is highly unlikely that these bookings would be reinstated. I think the market has taken a huge knock in confidence. The arbitrary nature of restrictions, the immediacy with which these can happen, and the stress and financial cost associated with them will have a significant impact on the travel world, not just to Southern Africa."

Some tourism sector stakeholders are optimistic about the international travel restrictions being reversed before the end of the year, when it's hoped that data will show that Omicron is no more dangerous than the Delta variant.

"Right now, we are only postponing clients for the next two weeks, till 16 December, our Xmas and New year guests are all waiting to see if there is a relaxation in travel restrictions," David Ryan, the founder and CEO of Rhino Africa Safaris, told Business Insider SA.

"We are in fact advising guests that if they cancel, and the travel restrictions change, the likelihood of them getting the availability again is slim, particularity in the safari lodges, which are fast filling up with South Africans who have had their outbound travel cancelled."

But Ryan also believes that the recently imposed restrictions will have long-lasting effects in the minds of holidaymakers, particularly those with future plans of visiting South Africa.

"It is the psychological impact that is most concerning to us, but we won't see the consequence of this immediately. The nature of inbound travel to Southern Africa is that it is a long-haul destination that is often a 'once-in-a-lifetime' trip. As such they contain lots of planning and often have long lead times," said Ryan.

"Overlay that with Africa's seasonality, and it's easy to understand that inbound travel to Southern Africa often has a lead time of between three and nine months. What the world just showed us is that governments can change rules as and when they like, and worse on short notice. The risk of being caught in a long-haul destination for many guests causes great anxiety."

"We anticipate this will have a significant blow to our recovery, because uncertainty always does."


Kathi

kathi@wildtravel.net
708-425-3552

"The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page."
 
Posts: 9348 | Location: Chicago | Registered: 23 July 2003Reply With Quote
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Sad. Truly sad. Frowner
 
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that's what happens when you try to do the right thing.
 
Posts: 4962 | Location: soda springs,id | Registered: 02 April 2008Reply With Quote
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The politicians have got exactly what they wished for.

An instrument to control the population.

This virus has been under control for months now, it is not going to go away.

Virus do mutate, and this one will continue to do so.

The stupid idiots screaming MY BODY, MY CHOICE are only prolonging this.

Imagine what would have happened if there was mass objections to other vaccines in the past.

Every little ignorant dickhead has become an anti vaxxer, just so they can get attention!


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quote:
The stupid idiots screaming MY BODY, MY CHOICE are only prolonging this.

Imagine what would have happened if there was mass objections to other vaccines in the past.

Every little ignorant dickhead has become an anti vaxxer, just so they can get attention



Considering that the existing vaccines appear to not work on the new strain.......that is a pretty ...well......goofy position to take. The existing vaccines are not totally effective against existing strains either there are a huge amount of instances of "break through" cases.
 
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“goofy position”? You’re being kind
 
Posts: 255 | Location: Huffman, TX.  | Registered: 04 August 2011Reply With Quote
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I agree, it is a very "goofy position".

The vaccines are only directed against the spike protein, which has now mutated, and are much too narrow to work against the variants. That is why herd immunity has not been reached with extremely high vaccination rates. Look at Iceland, South Korea, Israel, Ireland, Denmark, Portugal and more countries for an example of how the vaccine has not worked as advertised.

If you are young (<40 years old), healthy and male, then there is definitely a significant risk to getting the vaccine. If you are obese and over 65, then I would be first in line for the vaccine.
 
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quote:
Originally posted by JTEX:
quote:
The stupid idiots screaming MY BODY, MY CHOICE are only prolonging this.

Imagine what would have happened if there was mass objections to other vaccines in the past.

Every little ignorant dickhead has become an anti vaxxer, just so they can get attention



Considering that the existing vaccines appear to not work on the new strain.......that is a pretty ...well......goofy position to take. The existing vaccines are not totally effective against existing strains either there are a huge amount of instances of "break through" cases.


Have it your way.

Vaccines, ALL OF THEM, have been proven to provide at least SOME protection.

Which to any intelligent individual, is worth having rather than non.


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quote:
Originally posted by Saeed:
quote:
Originally posted by JTEX:
quote:
The stupid idiots screaming MY BODY, MY CHOICE are only prolonging this.

Imagine what would have happened if there was mass objections to other vaccines in the past.

Every little ignorant dickhead has become an anti vaxxer, just so they can get attention



Considering that the existing vaccines appear to not work on the new strain.......that is a pretty ...well......goofy position to take. The existing vaccines are not totally effective against existing strains either there are a huge amount of instances of "break through" cases.


Have it your way.

Vaccines, ALL OF THEM, have been proven to provide at least SOME protection.

Which to any intelligent individual, is worth having rather than non.


100% Saeed


Nec Timor Nec Temeritas
 
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posted Hide Post
quote:
Originally posted by Saeed:
quote:
Originally posted by JTEX:
quote:
The stupid idiots screaming MY BODY, MY CHOICE are only prolonging this.

Imagine what would have happened if there was mass objections to other vaccines in the past

Every little ignorant dickhead has become an anti vaxxer, just so they can get attention



Considering that the existing vaccines appear to not work on the new strain.......that is a pretty ...well......goofy position to take. The existing vaccines are not totally effective against existing strains either there are a huge amount of instances of "break through" cases.


Have it your way.

Vaccines, ALL OF THEM, have been proven to provide at least SOME protection.

Which to any intelligent individual, is worth having rather than non.




It’s not that the vaccines are so much a concern to me. It’s more the “stupid idiots” and “little ignorant dickhead” refrains coming from people trying to tell me what to do that really gets on my last nerve. I’m fully vaxxed plus the booster. It really was ‘my choice’ though. Demand I get it or else, and you can just KMA. (I guess it’s just a Texas thang with me)
 
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Years ago, we had to have specific vaccination to travel, or we could not get into a country.

Those who wish not have vaccination are at liberty to refuse.

But, sadly, so many of these dickheads have taken it upon themselves to stop others having it.

Those are the ones who are so selfishly stupid.


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Posts: 66762 | Location: Dubai, UAE | Registered: 08 January 1998Reply With Quote
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I remember as a kid having to be immunized against a variety of things . Small pox and polio for example . Guess what ? They have pretty much been wiped out .

I totally get people not being told what to do. However, our lives are full of things we can and cannot do for public safety reason . Let’s see. Speed limits . Stop signs . No smoking in restaurants. I can’t shoot my guns in my yard. The list goes on and on.

Why are the vaccines different?
 
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quote:
Originally posted by Saeed:
quote:
Originally posted by JTEX:
quote:
The stupid idiots screaming MY BODY, MY CHOICE are only prolonging this.

Imagine what would have happened if there was mass objections to other vaccines in the past.

Every little ignorant dickhead has become an anti vaxxer, just so they can get attention



Considering that the existing vaccines appear to not work on the new strain.......that is a pretty ...well......goofy position to take. The existing vaccines are not totally effective against existing strains either there are a huge amount of instances of "break through" cases.


Have it your way.

Vaccines, ALL OF THEM, have been proven to provide at least SOME protection.

Which to any intelligent individual, is worth having rather than non.


Exactly! People argue that vaccines will not prevent Covid. Of course, they are right. However, I am sure that a vaccine does prevent MORE cases and does lessen the SEVERITY.

I refuse to make it political.
 
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quote:
Originally posted by larryshores:
I remember as a kid having to be immunized against a variety of things . Small pox and polio for example . Guess what ? They have pretty much been wiped out .

I totally get people not being told what to do. However, our lives are full of things we can and cannot do for public safety reason . Let’s see. Speed limits . Stop signs . No smoking in restaurants. I can’t shoot my guns in my yard. The list goes on and on.

Why are the vaccines different?


100% agree!!
 
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quote:
Originally posted by larryshores:
I remember as a kid having to be immunized against a variety of things . Small pox and polio for example . Guess what ? They have pretty much been wiped out .

I totally get people not being told what to do. However, our lives are full of things we can and cannot do for public safety reason . Let’s see. Speed limits . Stop signs . No smoking in restaurants. I can’t shoot my guns in my yard. The list goes on and on.

Why are the vaccines different?


They’re not. It’s just some folks delight in making EVERYTHING political. Conspiracies simply don’t exist on EVERY issue.


Vote Trump- Putin’s best friend…
 
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quote:
Originally posted by jdollar:
quote:
Originally posted by larryshores:
I remember as a kid having to be immunized against a variety of things . Small pox and polio for example . Guess what ? They have pretty much been wiped out .

I totally get people not being told what to do. However, our lives are full of things we can and cannot do for public safety reason . Let’s see. Speed limits . Stop signs . No smoking in restaurants. I can’t shoot my guns in my yard. The list goes on and on.

Why are the vaccines different?


They’re not. It’s just some folks delight in making EVERYTHING political. Conspiracies simply don’t exist on EVERY issue.


Is there anything in America today that is NOT political?


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I am fully vaccinated. My wife and parents and her parents are as well.

That said…

…there are many points to consider.

1) These vaccines are novel and long term effects are totally unknown. There are potential longterm pitfalls that could arise like autoimmune types of diseases. Only time will tell and there are no good historic comparisons.

2) As stated above young healthy males without comorbidity have a 99.99+% chance of survival without consequences from SARS CoV-2 infection. It IS on par with the flu or even slightly lesser for them. This group does experience a significant number of mRNA induced consequences of significance…myocarditis being primary. Hence my 12 year old athlete son is unvaccinated and will remain so for a while.

3) All science says this virus is NOT one in which eradication is possible…huge numbers of reservoirs are already found.

4) It is unclear as to whether vaccine induced immunity is equivalent to natural immunity.

5) Coronaviridae like to mutate and will mutate. Spike protein variation will likely be something mutations select for. Thus, immunity based on broader antigen varieties will likely be key.

6) Vaccination mostly protects the vaccinated with the secondary effect of protecting other’s health only by keeping hospitals available. There is no data that I have seen that shows that high vaccination rates reduce mutation rates. The virus can be carried and spread by vaccinated people as well. After these initial waves…we are not nearly as likely to see hospitalizations on the scale of the past in the future…due to herd immunity.

The overall trend however is that if you are over 40 and especially if you have comorbidity…the vaccines are quite effective in reducing your chance of severe disease or of death. It is undeniable.

Thus the science suggests that vaccination really only protects the vaccinated with secondary effect of reducing hospitalizations as the only major benefit to the public. With forthcoming mutations…it is unclear if this trend will hold.

The quicker we realize that this virus is ubiquitous and has reservoirs ubiquitously and begin resuming normal life in regards to travel and movement the better off we will be. Of course increased awareness of proper hygiene is also a good consequence.


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
J. Lane Easter, DVM

A born Texan has instilled in his system a mind-set of no retreat or no surrender. I wish everyone the world over had the dominating spirit that motivates Texans.– Billy Clayton, Speaker of the Texas House

No state commands such fierce pride and loyalty. Lesser mortals are pitied for their misfortune in not being born in Texas.— Queen Elizabeth II on her visit to Texas in May, 1991.
 
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quote:
I remember as a kid having to be immunized against a variety of things . Small pox and polio for example . Guess what ? They have pretty much been wiped out .


How long have we had the flu vaccine?

.
 
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Great post ledvm.

There is a lot of truth in what you said.
 
Posts: 146 | Registered: 17 August 2013Reply With Quote
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some points of logic:

vaccine = stop sign ... I don't think so. there is no externality here, other persons are free to vaccinate themselves. you can't "vaccinate" yourself against someone driving through a stop sign.
vaccine = no shoot zone ... again I don't think so. while it's theoretically possible for everyone else to wear a bullet proof vest at all times, it's not practical. but it's quite practical for others to get the vaccine they wish on you.
vaccine = herd immunity ... i don't think so. on the contrary, it's the vaccinated person that is likely to trigger and spread the mutation. and it's proven that the vaccine does NOT stop one from spreading this thing ... but natural immunity might. so the logical conclusion is we should have let everyone get it in the first 3 months, so that the 99% that survived could have put this behind us.

having said that, if others want to play russian roulette, I am all for it, it will thin out the herd a bit and it's the weak and old that will succumb, that's all good. so if you don't want to get vaccinated, be my guest.


Russ Gould - Whitworth Arms LLC
BigfiveHQ.com, Large Calibers and African Safaris
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Back to the original post though, I agree that for RSA this covid thing is a turning point in history ... for the worse. Expect more riots, more crime and violence, a political lurch,
and the end of the "rainbow nation" dream. Dark days ahead.


Russ Gould - Whitworth Arms LLC
BigfiveHQ.com, Large Calibers and African Safaris
Doublegunhq.com, Fine English, American and German Double Rifles and Shotguns
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Two families I know who have been going to South Africa regularly for quite a while.

Both have said they will no longer go any more.

Both got stranded there recently because of the travel ban by airlines.

The UAE sent a plane to pick all citizens stranded in South Africa.

Again, reasons mentioned were feeling unsafe!


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Posts: 66762 | Location: Dubai, UAE | Registered: 08 January 1998Reply With Quote
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Every vaccine I ever took was tested for years/decades before I took it. There is a proven chance of heart issues with the vaccines.

If you are young and pretty fit, declining the vaccine keeps you 100% protected from vaccine side effects and 99.9% protected from a serious case of Covid.

People in the high-risk group SHOULD get the vaccine. They should also get their body mass index down to "normal." They should also get regular cardio, drink a proper amount of water, get a proper amount of vitamin D (and others), stick to a pretty healthy diet, skip the sodas, etc.

The best protection against Covid seems to be NOT being a fat-ass.

We also have more therapeutics coming out that reduce my chance of a serious case by 90+ percent. And I already had it, so I carry some natural immunity.

Whoa!! Damn!! I can do math AND risk assessment!!
 
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https://www.businessinsider.co...pped-reports-2021-12


Victor Watson
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Email: info@karoowildsafaris.co.za
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quote:
Originally posted by ledvm:
I am fully vaccinated. My wife and parents and her parents are as well.

That said…

…there are many points to consider.

1) These vaccines are novel and long term effects are totally unknown. There are potential longterm pitfalls that could arise like autoimmune types of diseases. Only time will tell and there are no good historic comparisons.

2) As stated above young healthy males without comorbidity have a 99.99+% chance of survival without consequences from SARS CoV-2 infection. It IS on par with the flu or even slightly lesser for them. This group does experience a significant number of mRNA induced consequences of significance…myocarditis being primary. Hence my 12 year old athlete son is unvaccinated and will remain so for a while.

3) All science says this virus is NOT one in which eradication is possible…huge numbers of reservoirs are already found.

4) It is unclear as to whether vaccine induced immunity is equivalent to natural immunity.

5) Coronaviridae like to mutate and will mutate. Spike protein variation will likely be something mutations select for. Thus, immunity based on broader antigen varieties will likely be key.

6) Vaccination mostly protects the vaccinated with the secondary effect of protecting other’s health only by keeping hospitals available. There is no data that I have seen that shows that high vaccination rates reduce mutation rates. The virus can be carried and spread by vaccinated people as well. After these initial waves…we are not nearly as likely to see hospitalizations on the scale of the past in the future…due to herd immunity.

The overall trend however is that if you are over 40 and especially if you have comorbidity…the vaccines are quite effective in reducing your chance of severe disease or of death. It is undeniable.

Thus the science suggests that vaccination really only protects the vaccinated with secondary effect of reducing hospitalizations as the only major benefit to the public. With forthcoming mutations…it is unclear if this trend will hold.

The quicker we realize that this virus is ubiquitous and has reservoirs ubiquitously and begin resuming normal life in regards to travel and movement the better off we will be. Of course increased awareness of proper hygiene is also a good consequence.


Dr. Easter, what are your thoughts on leaky vaccines and the possibility that they may encourage a virus to mutate toward more virulence instead of the natural tendency towards less?
Thank you for your informative post.
 
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