Market crash, flights grounded, business loss, and risk of being infected has everyone in panic mode. What happens if you panic when hunting Buffalo?

I have spent a great amount of time offshore and enough to say that things can go wrong very fast and unexpectedly. Your worst nightmare in an emergency situation is SOMEONE THAT IS PANICKED ! Not only has that person put their own life in jeopardy but the lives of their crew mates. STOP... BREATHE... THINK & USE COMMON SENSE. Panic is as contagious as the virus.

Hope that all AR Members and their families keep well and safe during this difficult time.

quote:

Originally posted by Capt. Purvis:
Market crash, flights grounded, business loss, and risk of being infected has everyone in panic mode. What happens if you panic when hunting Buffalo?

I have spent a great amount of time offshore and enough to say that things can go wrong very fast and unexpectedly. Your worst nightmare in an emergency situation is SOMEONE THAT IS PANICKED ! Not only has that person put their own life in jeopardy but the lives of their crew mates. STOP... BREATHE... THINK & USE COMMON SENSE. Panic is as contagious as the virus.

Hope that all AR Members and their families keep well and safe during this difficult time.

Damn good point, there are few places in the world where everything can go to hell quicker than far offshore. And when it does, those who panic often don't live to regret it. Thanks for adding that perspective, Captain Purvis.

Regardless of how one takes this.

The best policy is to be home with your family until this eases up.

The illness and death is the lesser issue for any society.

The cumulative economic and social impact has huge implications for generations. Yes i am not exaggerating.

This is potentially worse than World War 2. The virus and lock down will affect most families economically. 20% to 30% unemployment is predicted unless the spread is curtailed quickly.

We had an announcement and a small meeting at work. A small business with 65 employees. One comment was "If one person decides to come to work instead of calling the health line from home, the whole factory staff could be self isolated and the factory shut down".

How many such factories and businesses are going to shut?

Millennium Hotels in NZ had $5mil cancellations for March alone. Hospitality industry is worst hit. This is NZ where we have 23 cases so far - all from travelers returning. The full impact on Tourism is mind boggling.

How many mortgages will default payment? Will it be 20%?? What will the banks do?

Our Prime Minister is already being proactive and declared a $12.8 billion relief (from budget surplus & reserves!!). Businesses which show a 30% drop in revenue can apply for relief to pay wages to staff rather than lay them off.

Some here do not understand the way the supply chain & value chain works. It is exponential. the avalanche and snow ball has already started. In the US you have seen 1 or 2 weeks delay in testing. You saw efforts to treat this as a PR exercise fail miserably.

Our NZ economy will be hit by decline in Tourism and what the Australians do. Our banks are mostly Aussie owned.

I expect some incredible examples of human compassion and community solidarity. Innovation and resilience will come to the front. More stories will emerge over the next few years - like after the war.

Character will show itself - both good or bad. No one can hide in smokes and mirrors any more.

Naki is correct. While we sit here and converse our economies and perhaps the futures of our children is going up in smoke. As more of the asymptomatic positives emerge and we get an accurate handle on what percentage of the infected this number represents many will wonder if this was worth the social and economic cost. The "Death Rate Chart" freaks who are typically spouting these incredibly high numbers will have to face a reality that I do believe is coming. Our family may be one of thousands who could have(we think likely) infected early on, never tested and recovered. So we soldier on, watching our economies vaporize for what will likely end up being to protect less that 1% of the population. I say this with the same degree of accuracy that is reflected in the "Death Charts".

quote:

Originally posted by crane:
Naki is correct. While we sit here and converse our economies and perhaps the futures of our children is going up in smoke. As more of the asymptomatic positives emerge and we get an accurate handle on what percentage of the infected this number represents many will wonder if this was worth the social and economic cost. The "Death Rate Chart" freaks who are typically spouting these incredibly high numbers will have to face a reality that I do believe is coming. Our family may be one of thousands who could have(we think likely) infected early on, never tested and recovered. So we soldier on, watching our economies vaporize for what will likely end up being to protect less that 1% of the population. I say this with the same degree of accuracy that is reflected in the "Death Charts".

I am beginning to agree with your conclusion Crane. I had visitors from Australia and the UK as well as many other states in mid-Feb. I was ill - 103 fever, diarrhea, dry cough that made it difficult to sleep, etc. The only thing I didn't have was shortness of breath, but the first day I didn't feel right I ran four miles and felt a little short of breath. No chest pains. A young guy from Canada who visited had exactly the same thing when he got home.

I wonder how many people have had this and thought it was flu.

I am just taking it say by day to see what happens and re-schedule

Nothing else to do

My April 14 flight to Harare was just canceled.

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:


This is potentially worse than World War 2.

I do not agree with that. WWII destroyed infrastructure as well as lives. An estimated 70-85 million people died in WWII, about 3% of the 1940 world population. I don't think we will see that.

One of my tenants owns a fast food restaurant; he told me his business is down 50%, and all take out. I told him I would cut his rent in half until he can open back up.

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:


This is potentially worse than World War 2.

I do not agree with that. WWII destroyed infrastructure as well as lives. An estimated 70-85 million people died in WWII, about 3% of the 1940 world population. I don't think we will see that.

One of my tenants owns a fast food restaurant; he told me his business is down 50%, and all take out. I told him I would cut his rent in half until he can open back up.

Good stuff. Which, by the way is a reason not to hate all these corporations that have large cash reserves. Their ability to absorb to some extent a loss of revenue by having assets relieves pressure on other parts of the interconnected system - which keeps the machine working..

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:


This is potentially worse than World War 2.

I do not agree with that. WWII destroyed infrastructure as well as lives. An estimated 70-85 million people died in WWII, about 3% of the 1940 world population. I don't think we will see that.

One of my tenants owns a fast food restaurant; he told me his business is down 50%, and all take out. I told him I would cut his rent in half until he can open back up.

+1

Worse than WW2, what a ridiculous statement!!

quote:

Originally posted by Texas Blue Devil:

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:


This is potentially worse than World War 2.

I do not agree with that. WWII destroyed infrastructure as well as lives. An estimated 70-85 million people died in WWII, about 3% of the 1940 world population. I don't think we will see that.

One of my tenants owns a fast food restaurant; he told me his business is down 50%, and all take out. I told him I would cut his rent in half until he can open back up.

+1

Worse than WW2, what a ridiculous statement!!

You have to make allowance for modern society.

Not long ago, some deranged media star was suggesting we actually forget mentioning WW2.

Because it causes young people trauma!

Can you believe it??

Our modern society has bred incredibly stupid, senseless, selfish bunch of idiots who are not willing to learn from the past!

What is happening today in New York is worse than WW2. Major cities are like ghost towns.

NZ is on level 4 lock down in another 5 hours.

Uncharted territory.

Human nature will reveal itself in all its various forms.

We will see new heroes and leaders.

The selfish nature of pure capitalism will be exposed.

All those who claimed free market and free enterprise will now want bail outs before the common man! Just look at the GOP argument - give more money to corporations with little accountability and let the average guy just struggle!

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:
What is happening today in New York is worse than WW2. Major cities are like ghost towns.

NZ is on level 4 lock down in another 5 hours.

Uncharted territory.

Human nature will reveal itself in all its various forms.

We will see new heroes and leaders.

The selfish nature of pure capitalism will be exposed.

All those who claimed free market and free enterprise will now want bail outs before the common man! Just look at the GOP argument - give more money to corporations with little accountability and let the average guy just struggle!

Naki:

New York is worse off than World War 2? Are you out of your mind.

Do you actually believe that millions of people have or will be killed as a result of the “virus”

WW2 did not affect New Yorkers like this. Your hospitals did not get over crowded.

The impact on the economy will be the same or worse.

Here in NZ we are in lock down level 4 in another 4 hours. Economic support like freeze of mortgages is just the start. Never in the history of human civilization has this happened before - not world wide.

All you have to do is look at Italy and other countries which delayed social isolation and immediate steps to isolate / eradicate the virus.

Trumps strategy is high risk - for public health and the economy.

The damage is going to be far worse for both.

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:
...
The selfish nature of pure capitalism will be exposed.

All those who claimed free market and free enterprise will now want bail outs before the common man! Just look at the GOP argument - give more money to corporations with little accountability and let the average guy just struggle!

First, it looks like you are well versed in Democrat talking points. However, there is oversight and accountability in the Senate bill.

Secondly, small and large companies employ people. Would you want to have people be dependents of the government or help the companies that will keep the people employed?

Now, there needs to be a combination of business assistance and expanded unemployment benefits.

Not all business would even want a bailout as if the market is not there for the products then there is no point in keeping people working and that's where the unemployment insurance comes in.

Also, is it a free market and free enterprise when the government shuts the economy down?

quote:

Originally posted by tanks:

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:
...
The selfish nature of pure capitalism will be exposed.

All those who claimed free market and free enterprise will now want bail outs before the common man! Just look at the GOP argument - give more money to corporations with little accountability and let the average guy just struggle!

First, it looks like you are well versed in Democrat talking points. However, there is oversight and accountability in the Senate bill.

Secondly, small and large companies employ people. Would you want to have people be dependents of the government or help the companies that will keep the people employed?

Now, there needs to be a combination of business assistance and expanded unemployment benefits.

Not all business would even want a bailout as if the market is not there for the products then there is no point in keeping people working and that's where the unemployment insurance comes in.

Also, is it a free market and free enterprise when the government shuts the economy down?

And that is the crux of the policy issue - the shut down is brought on by specific government policies to control a pandemic.

Government can’t shut down the economy and then run away from the consequences of those policy actions.

Mike

I am from NZ and I have no "Democrat talking points". I just call it as I see it. Fat cats want it all with no accountability. Look at at what happened with the Storms in Puerto Rico. Fat cat Republicans gave away contracts to buddies with no accountability. Some of them even had clauses on no scrutiny of profits and no prosecution for fraud. Remember?

How many so called "free market" criminals got indicted for fraudulent claims after 9/11?

Look at the GOP Senators who sold off stock as soon as they got the inside info on the virus. Hospitality stocks went first!

Compare your GOP senate proposal with what the NZ Govt has done for the average citizen with Bi-partisan support. All bail out to companies has to be passed on to EMPLOYEES FIRST. Banks have to carry 20% of the mortgage bail out while the govt takes 80%. That is called "skin in the game". The banks cannot expect to come out on top while the rest of us carry all the risk.

The US senate proposal has no controls on stock buy back or paying bonus etc to fat cats. Remember 2008 bail out & how the fat cats scammed it?

Is it a free market when lobby groups control congress and the Supreme count to call a corporation a person and money as speech?

quote:

Originally posted by tanks:

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:
...
The selfish nature of pure capitalism will be exposed.

All those who claimed free market and free enterprise will now want bail outs before the common man! Just look at the GOP argument - give more money to corporations with little accountability and let the average guy just struggle!

First, it looks like you are well versed in Democrat talking points. However, there is oversight and accountability in the Senate bill.

Secondly, small and large companies employ people. Would you want to have people be dependents of the government or help the companies that will keep the people employed?

Now, there needs to be a combination of business assistance and expanded unemployment benefits.

Not all business would even want a bailout as if the market is not there for the products then there is no point in keeping people working and that's where the unemployment insurance comes in.

Also, is it a free market and free enterprise when the government shuts the economy down?

quote:

...


The US senate proposal has no controls on stock buy back or paying bonus etc to fat cats.

Is it a free market when lobby groups control congress and the Supreme count to call a corporation a person and money as speech?

Look at the GOP Senators who sold off stock as soon as they got the inside info on the virus. Hospitality stocks went first!

...

Regardless of where you are from, it is the Democrat talking points. Senate bill specifically prohibits stock buybacks and limits executive compensation to $450K.

Regarding the Supreme court decision, it leveled the playing field as in the past the unions could make political contributions as an entity (overwhelmingly Democratic party) and opposition could not. Due to it leveling the playing field Democrats don't like it though they do take advantage of it via their own PACs.

Also, I think it is not quite fair to compare NZ to the USA. More of a socialistic system where the government is expected to take care of people from cradle to grave with less individual rights. So, not quite an apples to apples comparison. It might work for a small homogenous population.

BTW, how are the new draconian gun control measures going there? Are you for it or against it?

Finally Diane Feinstein is a Democrat not GOP. However, I agree that if the sales were results of an insider information they should face consequences. I think at least two that I know of were programmed sales by people managing their portfolio. Heck, I didn't have insider information but sold off stock once they hit sell threshold my advisor and I had set up months ago.

Accusing Nakihunter to be a Democrat... I wonder about some of you Americans and the way you are thinking ... I am afraid it is not sustainable in the long run... but time will show !

Morten

If one goes to the World Health Organization's web page and looks for the situation report of Corvid-19 for today, it is Situation Report #64.
The world wide death count divided by the world wide frequency of cases is 4.35%.
So we are tracking for just about the same death rate per capita as WWII.
See...
https://www.who.int/docs/defau...df?sfvrsn=703b2c40_2
Sincerely,

Your facts and logic are twisted and BS.

Unions members are individuals and a huge number representing themselves and their families - low income average citizen.

Unions were formed to fight rich tyrannical businessmen who bribed local governments and law enforcement so they could exploit the poor. Remember the days of slave wages, no breaks, ridiculous hours, no leave, no job security, bonded labour of women & children and worse?

Lobby groups are formed by a TINY number of fat cats with Corporate backing & not for a vast majority of individuals. BIG DIFFERENCE.

BTW, I have never been a union member. I have been in management for over 30 years and a business owner. I have negotiated with many unions and fought some in court. I have faced strikes and Union mobs wanting to beat me up.

I have also seen corporations make inhumane and illegal decisions purely for money with no consideration for their workers, their families or for the community & country.

You need to get out of your little burrow and see the rest of the world before you pass judgement.

Your little burrow is much smaller than NZ!

quote:

Regarding the Supreme court decision, it leveled the playing field as in the past the unions could make political contributions as an entity (overwhelmingly Democratic party) and opposition could not.

Naki:

You are pretty far off with your comments about lobbying groups. Virtually every trade association is a lobbying group. SCI & the NRA are lobbying groups. The NRA, for example, has millions of members who aren't even in business. AARP is nothing more than a lobbying group for old people.

Are there some as you describe? Absolutely. They are a very small fraction of the entities lobbying.

quote:

Originally posted by larryshores:
Naki:

You are pretty far off with your comments about lobbying groups. Virtually every trade association is a lobbying group. SCI & the NRA are lobbying groups. The NRA, for example, has millions of members who aren't even in business. AARP is nothing more than a lobbying group for old people.

Are there some as you describe? Absolutely. They are a very small fraction of the entities lobbying.

Exactly why nothing useful ever gets done!

Self interest trumps anyone else’s!

quote:

Originally posted by Nakihunter:
Your facts and logic are twisted and BS.

Unions members are individuals and a huge number representing themselves and their families - low income average citizen.

Unions were formed to fight rich tyrannical businessmen who bribed local governments and law enforcement so they could exploit the poor. Remember the days of slave wages, no breaks, ridiculous hours, no leave, no job security, bonded labour of women & children and worse?
...

quote:

Regarding the Supreme court decision, it leveled the playing field as in the past the unions could make political contributions as an entity (overwhelmingly Democratic party) and opposition could not.

Unions of yesteryear were formed for legitimate reasons and were helpful. Unions of today are just a political arm of the Democratic party. It has gotten so bad that one can't even fire any union employee for lack of performance as in return for the union's support various rules and regulations have been passed.

In CA, where I live for the time being, the unions control everything through the legislature. Latest law they passed was an attempt to cripple Uber and Lyft though the unforeseen consequences led to multiple layoffs of freelancers. Independent truckers were up in arms as they would no longer be able to pick up freight in CA without becoming an employee of whatever company had hired them to ferry stuff.