quote:

Originally posted by Bwana338:
Cyril Ramaphosa lists countries on South Africa’s travel ban
“We will limit contact between persons who may be infected. We’re imposing a travel on ban on foreign nationals from Italy, Iran, South Korea, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and China. We have cancelled visas from those countries. We advise against all travel to the EU, the United States, China, Iran, the UK and South Korea – this is effective immediately.

“Any foreign national who has visited these countries in the past 20 days, will be denied a visa. Anyone returning to South Africa from these high-risk countries will be quarantined for 14 days. All travellers who entered SA from these nations since mid-February, are asked to get themselves tested.”

Cyril Ramaphosa
Coronavirus could lead to ‘national lockdown’
The UK, Germany and Italy are among the countries most frequented by our COVID-19 returnees. They also feature on the list of places from where travellers have been banned from visiting South Africa:

The decision was made as calls to put Mzansi on “lockdown” intensified on social media. Calls to shut schools down and encourage South Africans to work from home are being echoed across the country.

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:

quote:

Originally posted by Bwana338:
Cyril Ramaphosa lists countries on South Africa’s travel ban
“We will limit contact between persons who may be infected. We’re imposing a travel on ban on foreign nationals from Italy, Iran, South Korea, Germany, the United States, the United Kingdom and China. We have cancelled visas from those countries. We advise against all travel to the EU, the United States, China, Iran, the UK and South Korea – this is effective immediately.

“Any foreign national who has visited these countries in the past 20 days, will be denied a visa. Anyone returning to South Africa from these high-risk countries will be quarantined for 14 days. All travellers who entered SA from these nations since mid-February, are asked to get themselves tested.”

Cyril Ramaphosa
Coronavirus could lead to ‘national lockdown’
The UK, Germany and Italy are among the countries most frequented by our COVID-19 returnees. They also feature on the list of places from where travellers have been banned from visiting South Africa:

The decision was made as calls to put Mzansi on “lockdown” intensified on social media. Calls to shut schools down and encourage South Africans to work from home are being echoed across the country.

So that is the end of this thread

quote:

Originally posted by JGRaider: You can live by fear, or live by faith, fear isn't an option in my world.

quote:

Originally posted by CanadianLefty:

quote:

Originally posted by JGRaider: You can live by fear, or live by faith, fear isn't an option in my world.

I prefer Bloomberg's slogan, “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.” It better be robust quantitative and qualitative data with a sound set of assumptions too.

quote:

Originally posted by JGRaider:
CL, what do you think of this data?

The WHO describes a “pandemic” as “the worldwide spread of a new disease.” By this description, we are witnessing several pandemics today. The WHO estimates that there were 228 million cases of malaria worldwide in 2018, with 405,000 deaths. Almost half the world’s population—about 3.2 billion people—are at risk. The disease kills a child every two minutes.
According to Dr. Christian W. McMillen’s excellent introduction to pandemics, cholera is in its seventh pandemic. It has lasted longer than any previous pandemic and shows no sign of easing. Researchers estimate that there are between 1.3 million and 4 million cases a year, with up to 143,000 deaths worldwide. Tuberculosis (TB) might be the oldest human disease, but this pandemic is still with us as well. Due to multidrug-resistant TB, extensively drug-resistant TB, poor infection control, and drug shortages, tuberculosis now kills more people than at any other time in history. And the AIDS pandemic has infected approximately 37.9 million people around the world, with 1.7 million new infections in 2018. According to the WHO, since the beginning of the epidemic, 75 million people have been infected with the HIV virus; about 32 million have died of it.

quote:

Zimbabwe’s Defense Minister says the coronavirus pandemic is God’s way of exacting revenge for countries that have imposed economic sanctions on the country.

Minister Oppah Muchinguri singled out the United States going as far as saying President Trump should know that “he is not God.” Trump renewed sanctions on the country recently.

She was speaking on Saturday at an event in Chinoyi, capital of the West Mashonaland Province. Her address was in a local language, a translation of which was as follows.

They are now stuck in their homes. There is nothing else for them to do. Their economies are now screaming. Isn't it they are making ours scream too? Trump must know that he is not God. They are suffocating us, where do they want us to go? Now it is your turn to be suffocated by coronavirus. So that you will feel how p

“This coronavirus that has come, these are sanctions, isn’t it? These are sanctions that have been imposed on countries that imposed sanctions on us. God has punished them.

“They are now stuck in their homes. There is nothing else for them to do. Their economies are now screaming. Isn’t it they are making ours scream too? Trump must know that he is not God.

“They are suffocating us, where do they want us to go? Now it is your turn to be suffocated by coronavirus. So that you will feel how painful it is.”

Zimbabweans on social media have been reacting to the pronouncements. A section calling for her to be fired, others making jest of the comment whiles for others the fact that China, an ally of the country, was the epicenter of the outbreak, has caused them to brand the Minister as ignorant.

“On behalf of the people of Zimbabwe, I would like to apologise to those countries that have been affected by the coronavirus; the provocative and ignorant comments by the Defence Minister do not reflect the thinking of the generality of Zimbabweans who wish you a speedy recovery,” a former deputy minister Godfrey Gandawa tweeted on Sunday.

The Zimbabwe government continues to insist that economic sanctions was all but worsening the struggling economy of the southern African nation. In 2019 alone, the ruling ZANU-PF called for sanctions to be lifted early in the year.

The government bemoaned the sanctions and declared a day of prayer and protest against sanctions. Harare also got regional bloc, SADC, to weigh in on the issue as did the African Union Commission chief shortly after SADC.

China, one of their biggest allies also called for lifting of what Beijing described as “unjustifiable” sanctions. Incidentally, Wuhan in China’s Hubei Province was the epicenter of the pandemic which has began to spread across the continent.

The closest it is to Zimbabwe is in the Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC, where two cases have been recorded. the situation is worse in South Africa where cases have spiked.

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by CanadianLefty:

quote:

Originally posted by JGRaider: You can live by fear, or live by faith, fear isn't an option in my world.

I prefer Bloomberg's slogan, “In God we trust. Everyone else bring data.” It better be robust quantitative and qualitative data with a sound set of assumptions too.

+1

But then I send that gun grabbing soft drinking seizing little man $3k a month for a loaded terminal.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by jdollar:
I don’t really consider Goldman Sachs as a good prognosticator of medical advice or projections. And yes, we are ready. Our small rural farming community has 2 grocery stores. I picked up a few items this morning. The shelves were full. Farmers generally aren’t the ignorant fools that inhabit large cities. To quote Hank Williams Jr, a country boy can survive.....

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:...
Why hasn't anyone come up with something to replace and/or replicate the Bloomberg Terminal?

quote:

Originally posted by tanks:

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:...
Why hasn't anyone come up with something to replace and/or replicate the Bloomberg Terminal?

They have. There are about 6,7 other companies that offer similar services. Bloomberg has about 30% of the market.

quote:

Originally posted by jdollar:
I don’t really consider Goldman Sachs as a good prognosticator of medical advice or projections. And yes, we are ready. Our small rural farming community has 2 grocery stores. I picked up a few items this morning. The shelves were full. Farmers generally aren’t the ignorant fools that inhabit large cities. To quote Hank Williams Jr, a country boy can survive.....

quote:

Originally posted by jdollar:
I don’t really consider Goldman Sachs as a good prognosticator of medical advice or projections. And yes, we are ready. Our small rural farming community has 2 grocery stores. I picked up a few items this morning. The shelves were full. Farmers generally aren’t the ignorant fools that inhabit large cities. To quote Hank Williams Jr, a country boy can survive.....

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by tanks:

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:...
Why hasn't anyone come up with something to replace and/or replicate the Bloomberg Terminal?

They have. There are about 6,7 other companies that offer similar services. Bloomberg has about 30% of the market.

It’s tough to trade fixed income without a Bloomberg.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by jdollar:
If 150 million Americans got the virus, that is approx one out of two- every other person. So EVERY family has at least one infected member. Sounds very strange and also impossible. Better buy stock in a casket maker......

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

quote:

Originally posted by jdollar:
If 150 million Americans got the virus, that is approx one out of two- every other person. So EVERY family has at least one infected member. Sounds very strange and also impossible. Better buy stock in a casket maker......

Yep. A mortality rate of 1%, if that is correct, is 1.5m dead in America. Pretty much matches the post Larry Shores posted yesterday. Here is the pertinent part of that post.

"We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available."

Is this going to happen? I have no clue, but Goldman has the top people at their professions modeling and gaming out every scenario. It truly is the best information that money can buy.

Exponential numbers can be scary. The key is getting RO<1. Hopefully a few weeks of self quarantine will flatten the curve enough to keep the medical system from being inundated.

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

quote:

Originally posted by jdollar:
If 150 million Americans got the virus, that is approx one out of two- every other person. So EVERY family has at least one infected member. Sounds very strange and also impossible. Better buy stock in a casket maker......

Yep. A mortality rate of 1%, if that is correct, is 1.5m dead in America. Pretty much matches the post Larry Shores posted yesterday. Here is the pertinent part of that post.

"We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available."

Is this going to happen? I have no clue, but Goldman has the top people at their professions modeling and gaming out every scenario. It truly is the best information that money can buy.

Exponential numbers can be scary. The key is getting RO<1. Hopefully a few weeks of self quarantine will flatten the curve enough to keep the medical system from being inundated.

I have not seen the gs research - I will bet it is the worst cases scenario they have taken from outside research and not any internal gs research.

The summary from gs macro team 3/15


“We expect US economic activity to contract sharply in the remainder of March and throughout April as virus fears lead consumers and businesses to continue to cut back on spending such as travel, entertainment, and restaurant meals. Emerging supply chain disruptions and the recent tightening in financial conditions will likely add to the growth hit.
n Our baseline assumption is that activity will start to recover after April and that H2 will see strong sequential growth, but the specifics depend on a number of important questions. Some are medical, including the extent to which social distancing and seasonally higher temperatures will reduce infections as well as whether good treatments will emerge. Others are behavioral and economic, including how quickly reduced infections will bring back everyday activities and how effective easier monetary and fiscal policy will be in providing support.
n All told, we now expect real GDP growth of 0% in Q1 (from +0.7%), -5% in Q2 (from 0%), +3% in Q3 (from +1%), and +4% in Q4 (from +21⁄4%), with further strong gains in early 2021. This takes our 2020 GDP forecast down to +0.4% (from 1.2%). The uncertainty around all of these numbers is much greater than normal.
n Would the NBER business cycle dating committee classify our new forecast as a recession, given that it involves only one quarter of strictly negative growth? It is not entirely clear, but we think the answer is probably yes. The committee has noted previously that even a contraction of just a few months can meet its recession definition if it is sufficiently deep.”


A calculator to play around with

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

No one has a clue where this goes - the vix at 50 plus tells you market is as uncertain as everyone else.

“This too shall pass” is all I can say.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by BaxterB:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

quote:

Originally posted by jdollar:
If 150 million Americans got the virus, that is approx one out of two- every other person. So EVERY family has at least one infected member. Sounds very strange and also impossible. Better buy stock in a casket maker......

Yep. A mortality rate of 1%, if that is correct, is 1.5m dead in America. Pretty much matches the post Larry Shores posted yesterday. Here is the pertinent part of that post.

"We in the US are currently where at where Italy was a week ago. We see nothing to say we will be substantially different.
40-70% of the US population will be infected over the next 12-18 months. After that level you can start to get herd immunity. Unlike flu this is entirely novel to humans, so there is no latent immunity in the global population.
[We used their numbers to work out a guesstimate of deaths— indicating about 1.5 million Americans may die. The panelists did not disagree with our estimate. This compares to seasonal flu’s average of 50K Americans per year. Assume 50% of US population, that’s 160M people infected. With 1% mortality rate that's 1.6M Americans die over the next 12-18 months.]
The fatality rate is in the range of 10X flu.
This assumes no drug is found effective and made available."

Is this going to happen? I have no clue, but Goldman has the top people at their professions modeling and gaming out every scenario. It truly is the best information that money can buy.

Exponential numbers can be scary. The key is getting RO<1. Hopefully a few weeks of self quarantine will flatten the curve enough to keep the medical system from being inundated.

I have not seen the gs research - I will bet it is the worst cases scenario they have taken from outside research and not any internal gs research.

The summary from gs macro team 3/15


“We expect US economic activity to contract sharply in the remainder of March and throughout April as virus fears lead consumers and businesses to continue to cut back on spending such as travel, entertainment, and restaurant meals. Emerging supply chain disruptions and the recent tightening in financial conditions will likely add to the growth hit.
n Our baseline assumption is that activity will start to recover after April and that H2 will see strong sequential growth, but the specifics depend on a number of important questions. Some are medical, including the extent to which social distancing and seasonally higher temperatures will reduce infections as well as whether good treatments will emerge. Others are behavioral and economic, including how quickly reduced infections will bring back everyday activities and how effective easier monetary and fiscal policy will be in providing support.
n All told, we now expect real GDP growth of 0% in Q1 (from +0.7%), -5% in Q2 (from 0%), +3% in Q3 (from +1%), and +4% in Q4 (from +21⁄4%), with further strong gains in early 2021. This takes our 2020 GDP forecast down to +0.4% (from 1.2%). The uncertainty around all of these numbers is much greater than normal.
n Would the NBER business cycle dating committee classify our new forecast as a recession, given that it involves only one quarter of strictly negative growth? It is not entirely clear, but we think the answer is probably yes. The committee has noted previously that even a contraction of just a few months can meet its recession definition if it is sufficiently deep.”


A calculator to play around with

http://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html

No one has a clue where this goes - the vix at 50 plus tells you market is as uncertain as everyone else.

“This too shall pass” is all I can say.

Mike

Does that Bloomberg terminal of yours have a Crystal Ball button on it?? If so, can I borrow it?

quote:

Originally posted by Mario:
Hi Guys. I write from Lombardia the richest and stronger italian region and the most affected from corona. In the whole country we had 2158 dead people.Yesterday 349. The number of infected people is 27.073. about 10% of these are recovered in hospital in intensive care.Many of these will die in the coming days. As you can understand the situation is extremely serious. Not only for the elderly but also for young people. The hospitals in Lombardy are full. There is no place to hospitalize other people. Many, those who are not very very serious, are left at home. Everyone is locked in the house, only the sirens of the ambulances are heard.People die in hospital without the possibility of having the comfort of their loved ones, funerals cannot be celebrated and cemeteries are practically blocked by the large number of bodies. Terrible.Please don't underestimate the virus. Listen to what will be prescribed by your president and avoid gatherings of people.

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:
I posted this on LinkedIn:

Unintended Health Consequences of the Coronavirus Response

Politicians are not considering the impact the shutdown of businesses and society will have on health. Will the suicide rate go up? Google the topic and you will see incidents of suicide during the GFC appears to have increased by 10,000. Divorce rates were higher.

How about heart attacks? A study from Cambridge University found statistical analysis of 40 years’ data from the World Bank and World Health Organization concluded that a “system-wide” crisis increased deaths from heart disease by an average 6.4 per cent in wealthy countries – and more in developing countries.

What about obesity? Smoking? Drinking and DUIs? It is insane to think the measures we are taking will not have major adverse impacts on the health of Americans.

I am not saying we should take no measures, only that we consider the adverse impacts as part of the total response.

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:
I posted this on LinkedIn:

Unintended Health Consequences of the Coronavirus Response

Politicians are not considering the impact the shutdown of businesses and society will have on health. Will the suicide rate go up? Google the topic and you will see incidents of suicide during the GFC appears to have increased by 10,000. Divorce rates were higher.

How about heart attacks? A study from Cambridge University found statistical analysis of 40 years’ data from the World Bank and World Health Organization concluded that a “system-wide” crisis increased deaths from heart disease by an average 6.4 per cent in wealthy countries – and more in developing countries.

What about obesity? Smoking? Drinking and DUIs? It is insane to think the measures we are taking will not have major adverse impacts on the health of Americans.

I am not saying we should take no measures, only that we consider the adverse impacts as part of the total response.

The decision has been made from US to China to Europe to Uganda to take on and curtail coved-19.

There is no turning back - will only ratchet higher.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This data points will drive everything. Giving up and turning back in control it will destroy the financial markets and institutional credibility.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:

quote:

Originally posted by AnotherAZWriter:
I posted this on LinkedIn:

Unintended Health Consequences of the Coronavirus Response

Politicians are not considering the impact the shutdown of businesses and society will have on health. Will the suicide rate go up? Google the topic and you will see incidents of suicide during the GFC appears to have increased by 10,000. Divorce rates were higher.

How about heart attacks? A study from Cambridge University found statistical analysis of 40 years’ data from the World Bank and World Health Organization concluded that a “system-wide” crisis increased deaths from heart disease by an average 6.4 per cent in wealthy countries – and more in developing countries.

What about obesity? Smoking? Drinking and DUIs? It is insane to think the measures we are taking will not have major adverse impacts on the health of Americans.

I am not saying we should take no measures, only that we consider the adverse impacts as part of the total response.

The decision has been made from US to China to Europe to Uganda to take on and curtail coved-19.

There is no turning back - will only ratchet higher.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

This data points will drive everything. Giving up and turning back in control it will destroy the financial markets and institutional credibility.

Mike

I am not saying "give up." But honestly, the Gov of PA today said all non-essential businesses must close by midnight. What are the health impacts of that???

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
This study is what freaked the the trump team into drastic action

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/med...lling-16-03-2020.pdf

It scary as a do nothing policy projects up to 2.2 mil deaths.

Nytimes story - may require a subscription and I know Saeed does not like that but in this case I will post it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...ate-white-house.html

There is a reason everyone from Chinese to Indians to Europe to US is freaking out and imposing horrific economic consequence policies.

They rather error on caution than bravado if the result of wrong decision is 2.2 mil. dead citizens.

The us government has far more tools that it has used. When one of the states of the world is 2.2 mil dead Americans who will be dying on national tv in overwhelmed health care facilities - you are going to see some drastic policy actions.

Mike

quote:

Originally posted by Beretta682E:
This study is what freaked the the trump team into drastic action

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/med...lling-16-03-2020.pdf

It scary as a do nothing policy projects up to 2.2 mil deaths.

Nytimes story - may require a subscription and I know Saeed does not like that but in this case I will post it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...ate-white-house.html

There is a reason everyone from Chinese to Indians to Europe to US is freaking out and imposing horrific economic consequence policies.

They rather error on caution than bravado if the result of wrong decision is 2.2 mil. dead citizens.

The us government has far more tools that it has used. When one of the states of the world is 2.2 mil dead Americans who will be dying on national tv in overwhelmed health care facilities - you are going to see some drastic policy actions.

Mike