Starting to worry a bit that the CV will affect my trip in mid April.

Traveling from NYC/JFK to Jo’beeg to Bulawayo on South African Airline.

I will not let the virus stop ME but I am hoping that SAA and other airlines will start canceling flights and I won’t be able to get there.

I can’t imagine Zimbabwe turning away any tourist that is still breathing but what about RSA?

I know that nobody has the answer for this now, or especially for mid April but I would like to hear your thoughts on this.

Thanks Gentlemen!

If outbreak clusters expand to community transmission and dozens++ cases increase in NYC, then SAA has the obligation (according to the WHO) to screen all passengers and possibly cancel flights. So far, containment is failing in the U.S. and they don't even have enough test kits for all supected cases.

Your best bet is to wait and see.

quote:

Originally posted by CanadianLefty:
If outbreak clusters expand to community transmission and dozens++ cases increase in NYC, then SAA has the obligation (according to the WHO) to screen all passengers and possibly cancel flights. So far, containment is failing in the U.S. and they don't even have enough test kits for all supected cases.

Your best bet is to wait and see.

Ugh, great! I have no choice but to wait and see

As I said before, I won’t let it stop me but just worrying about getting there

I've been thinking about booking a trip to RSA or Namibia this year. I'm not that concerned about the hunting part of the trip as I am about the flights to Africa and back.

It's the mixture of folks from various parts of the world all crowded together in a flying petri dish that concerns me. Getting stuck in Africa if flights to the US were cancelled or being forced into quarantine upon return would be a real problem.

Many countries are screening passengers.

It is quick, effective and non intrusive.

They place thermal sensor the passengers pass by.

Those exhibiting high temperatures are examined further.

The rest just go on their way.

Booked my tickets this week to go to SA and Namibia in May.

Maybe I can self-quarantine myself out in the bush and get to stay longer.

I have two flights booked during the rest of this month.

Have already booked our trip to Tanzania in September.

And have no idea how many flights I will be on in the summer.

quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:
Many countries are screening passengers.

It is quick, effective and non intrusive.

They place thermal sensor the passengers pass by.

Those exhibiting high temperatures are examined further.

The rest just go on their way.

I would have no problem with that Saeed.

I just want to go!

quote:

Originally posted by Saeed:
Many countries are screening passengers.

It is quick, effective and non intrusive.

They place thermal sensor the passengers pass by.

Those exhibiting high temperatures are examined further.

The rest just go on their way.

The problem with COVID 19 is that carriers can be asymptomatic for over ten days and still be contagious. Some medical professionals feel that these airport temperature screenings are catching less than 10% of those that are contagious since they are only stopping those that are symptomatic.

This has been known since January. This is one of a handful of characteristics of this virus that when combined, make this substantially different than the common flu.

This virus has combined characteristics that could make it more like the 1918 virus than anything we have seen in our lifetimes. (This will probably be substantially worse than the 1957 and 1968 viruses) For 80% of the population that catches the virus, this is almost a nonevent medically. For the other 15%-20%, it may be very rough. Many of us that post here, probably closely match the demographic most susceptible to be in the 20%.

Be careful!

If you had to take an educated guess, what would you say will be happening a month from now?

Guys,

I've been watching the news every morning and it seems the most vulnerable to serious illness if they catch the virus are folks 80+ or people with compromised immune systems. Other folks may have nothing more the what presents as a cold.

Reality check! The common flu strain kills 25,000-69,000 Americans every year.

I'm going to be traveling through or spending time in Seattle, Dubai, Lusaka, JNB and Mauritius this year. I'm not worrying about it.

Mark

Just booked our tickets for our first of two trips of this year to Botswana - first in Jun second in Aug.

I pretty much tune out all the talking heads in the media unless they are actual MD's and read a LOT of publicly available actual medical reports/releases from various medical universities and research centers. I can't help believe this is being way over hyped. Why I don't know but have some guesses/suspicions.

The bottom line that I can see at this point is the actual mortality rate for this particular strain of the common Corona flu, this being strain #19, as it being reported from all countries with "confirmed" cases and EXCLUDING any and all info coming out of China, is no worse than that of other Corona strains world-wide, 1-2% MAX.

The other info being discussed in the medical community on the web is this particular strain may have actually be floating around in the world longer than it's been "reported" and people got it and got over it just like other strains of the Corona viruses.

Just my take, but contracting and croaking from this are the least of my worries.

Afterthought - IF Alitalia (National Airlines of Italy) is the example, when they CNX flights into/out of certain areas of Italy, they offered to either refund or reschedule at no charge. If this happens - I'm willing to bet your Outfitter would allow you to reschedule/rebook your dates accordingly.

I definitely think it’s been around longer than we think, we are just catching up to it. Of course when you go looking for anything you tend to find it. Most with the flu just tough it out, I’d be willing to be in Seattle there have been a ton of people who have gotten it, gotten over it and never become a denominator in the mortality rate because they were not “officially” tested/confirmed.

quote:

Originally posted by MARK H. YOUNG:
Guys,

I've been watching the news every morning and it seems the most vulnerable to serious illness if they catch the virus are folks 80+ or people with compromised immune systems. Other folks may have nothing more the what presents as a cold.

Reality check! The common flu strain kills 25,000-69,000 Americans every year.

I'm going to be traveling through or spending time in Seattle, Dubai, Lusaka, JNB and Mauritius this year. I'm not worrying about it.

Mark

Agree with your first point, but numbers start rising exponentially around 65 years of age. Even faster if there are contributing issues.

Agree with your point on the common flu, except:

1. The common flu doesn't put 15% of those that catch it in the hospital. (ie: some hospitals in northern Italy were out of beds less than a week of the virus being initially confirmed in Italy. We all know what happened in Wuhan.)

2. The average hospital stay with the flu is not 13 days.

3. A significantly higher percentage of patients admitted to the hospital with this virus, need a respirator, than they do with the common flu.

4. A severe case of the flu is normally over in a week or a little over. Numbers for this virus are showing a recovery of around 31-33 days.

5. WHO today shows slightly over 101,000 cases with 3,400 deaths. This is a significantly higher mortality rate than the flu which is around .1%. This mortality rate should go down as a larger and better data set are established.

Sorry for not citing sources but I don't have the time to re look the information up now. These are all numbers I have seen from credible sources. I will leave it to you to determine if I am credible or hyperbolic.


Mark, you should probably be fine traveling the world. A middle aged person in great health doesn't seem to be at very high risk. As an agent the question you have to ask yourself, how are your clients ages and health?

I too have trips planned for this year. The first, puts me in Mozambique in less than two months. Demographics put me in a higher risk group than you. Do I really want to be in a hospital in Maputo, especially if I need a respirator. At this point the hunt is still on and I am planning to go. We are still early and there are many unknowns that may work themselves out in time.


This post is not meant to be a direct attack on you. Be careful and all the best on your hunts!

quote:

Originally posted by BaxterB:
I definitely think it’s been around longer than we think, we are just catching up to it. Of course when you go looking for anything you tend to find it. Most with the flu just tough it out, I’d be willing to be in Seattle there have been a ton of people who have gotten it, gotten over it and never become a denominator in the mortality rate because they were not “officially” tested/confirmed.

Until the middle of February, there was a decent amount of information coming out of China on social media that was contrary to the CCP line. Those sources have been shut down and individuals in all likelihood arrested.

During this time, medical professionals on the ground were putting the start date in humans close to November 1. Evidently these numbers can be judged fairly accurately by virologists in the early generations of a virus.

Mortality rate outside of China is less than half than within China. 267:14768 vs. 3015:80656. Deaths (id reported accurately) have slowed in China and sped up outside.

Bear in mind these cases are confirmed - unconfirmed cases are surely much, much higher.

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

quote:

Originally posted by BaxterB:
I definitely think it’s been around longer than we think, we are just catching up to it. Of course when you go looking for anything you tend to find it. Most with the flu just tough it out, I’d be willing to be in Seattle there have been a ton of people who have gotten it, gotten over it and never become a denominator in the mortality rate because they were not “officially” tested/confirmed.

Until the middle of February, there was a decent amount of information coming out of China on social media that was contrary to the CCP line. Those sources have been shut down and individuals in all likelihood arrested.

During this time, medical professionals on the ground were putting the start date in humans close to November 1. Evidently these numbers can be judged fairly accurately by virologists in the early generations of a virus.

I’ll buy Nov. 1. No way China just lets that cat out of the bag honestly.

quote:

Originally posted by AilsaWheels:

quote:

Originally posted by MARK H. YOUNG:
Guys,

I've been watching the news every morning and it seems the most vulnerable to serious illness if they catch the virus are folks 80+ or people with compromised immune systems. Other folks may have nothing more the what presents as a cold.

Reality check! The common flu strain kills 25,000-69,000 Americans every year.

I'm going to be traveling through or spending time in Seattle, Dubai, Lusaka, JNB and Mauritius this year. I'm not worrying about it.

Mark

Agree with your first point, but numbers start rising exponentially around 65 years of age. Even faster if there are contributing issues.

Agree with your point on the common flu, except:

1. The common flu doesn't put 15% of those that catch it in the hospital. (ie: some hospitals in northern Italy were out of beds less than a week of the virus being initially confirmed in Italy. We all know what happened in Wuhan.)

2. The average hospital stay with the flu is not 13 days.

3. A significantly higher percentage of patients admitted to the hospital with this virus, need a respirator, than they do with the common flu.

4. A severe case of the flu is normally over in a week or a little over. Numbers for this virus are showing a recovery of around 31-33 days.

5. WHO today shows slightly over 101,000 cases with 3,400 deaths. This is a significantly higher mortality rate than the flu which is around .1%. This mortality rate should go down as a larger and better data set are established.

Sorry for not citing sources but I don't have the time to re look the information up now. These are all numbers I have seen from credible sources. I will leave it to you to determine if I am credible or hyperbolic.


Mark, you should probably be fine traveling the world. A middle aged person in great health doesn't seem to be at very high risk. As an agent the question you have to ask yourself, how are your clients ages and health?

I too have trips planned for this year. The first, puts me in Mozambique in less than two months. Demographics put me in a higher risk group than you. Do I really want to be in a hospital in Maputo, especially if I need a respirator. At this point the hunt is still on and I am planning to go. We are still early and there are many unknowns that may work themselves out in time....

I don't know who "AilsaWheels" is, but they are correct.

A few other factors contributing to not being able to contain COVID-19 is early denial, misalignment of incentives that are economically driven instead of human health and life and safety driven etc. Some countries, including the U.S. does not have the level of political and health infrastructure commitment to match this level of threat.

Given that COVID-19 is 10x to 20x more deadly than the common flu, we'd not want to have, using Mark's numbers, 500,000-1,000,000+ Americans die nor contribute to worldwide spread and countless more deaths.

Again, the WHO warns governments 'this is not a drill' as coronavirus infections top over 100,000+ worldwide, with many people not even being tested yet due to testing kit shortages.

If anyone is or has clients, friends or family traveling abroad, have them independently assess their risk by consulting with their doctors (remotely), the CDC, NIH and WHO websites for more information on what their risk may be before deciding to travel. Further, take a wait and see approach as to how quickly/where this virus spreads to make travel decisions as close as possible to any departures.

Read the news, most of the U.S. west coast tech companies (Microsoft/LinkedIn, Facebook, Google, Twitter and more) who have the dollars for their own expert doctors and risk assessment teams to consult with are recommending all employees work from home starting this week and to limit travel, even within the U.S.

I would Cancel ALL TRIPS!!! I live in Washington where all the Deaths are but still.

Ailsa- There is no data(it is impossible) for real mortality of 19. How many are not reported? I'm guessing that is a huge number.

quote:

Given that COVID-19 is 10x to 20x more deadly than the common flu,

There is ZERO scientific data to back this up

quote:

Originally posted by crane:
Ailsa- There is no data(it is impossible) for real mortality of 19. How many are not reported? I'm guessing that is a huge number.

I agree with you completely. That is why my post said the mortality rate would come down. The problem is we have poor information. GIGO. The key is what is the best information we have right now to operate with. Saying this virus is similar to the common flu with a mortality rate of .1% is completely misleading. So, what data do we use? WHO probably is as good as anyone with 100,000+ cases and 3,400 deaths. 3.4%. If you have something better, please share. I certainly am open.

Most of the information coming out of China is suspect. There are probably multiples more that had the virus that haven't been included in statistics. There are also many who have died that have not been counted in the statistics either. (ie: death certificate saying pneumonia) Plus, there are people that will die but haven't yet.


If we take all cases outside of China we have 20,108 cases and 418 deaths according to WHO. (as I write) This gives a mortality rate of 2.08% which would still not be accurate, yet is still x20 higher than the common flu which was my point above. Again, this will probably come down but still not get to a number close to the common flu at .1%.

We are shooting at a moving target and will probably not have decent information for a few months. In a couple of years when COVID 19 runs it's course and we are all vaccinated, the experts will all get together and make an educated WAG, that will be posted in Wikipedia for our grand kids to compare with the virus they happen to be dealing with at that moment in time.

Jesus man up. It's a flu for christ sake.

I have a difficult time believing any "data" being reported, honestly. For example, until recently in the US the only "testing" that was done had to have samples sent to University Medical or Regional Medical labs.

Point being, it's highly likely that significant number of people who got "the flu" either just toughed it out at home and only those that got so bad they sought hospitalization in smaller local hospitals or urgent care facilities may or may not have had a formal diagnosis of #19.

Only way to ever get hard factual numbers just in the US, would be for every person to be tested at the same time whether showing or feeling symptoms at the time of testing. Even the US still doesn't have those quantities of test kits nor the capacity to run that amount of tests.

Again, my point being there is no possible way to actually come up with any hard numbers. Especially if this particular strain of Corona has only been "released" in the past six months, maybe longer.

Will this particular strain be found all around the world eventually? In my view - Yes, I'm pretty sure that is unavoidable.

I remember a BIO Weapon test that was done some 20 years ago to test what could happen if a no shit biological weapon were ever released. Scientists engineered a common benign bacteria that is all over the world. They modified it to glow under a certain wave of ultra violet light. They put it in two test tubes and took one to Tokyo and one to New York and dropped and broke the tubes on the floor of a subway train. With in 45-days they could find these bacteria in virtually every major city in every country.

I just think the media hype at this point is just way over the top.

Fuck me we all want to take on Buffalo at close proximity but are worried about whether we sneeze or not?

Thank you for that perspective Andrew. This whole thing is a totally overblown cluster. And being fed by bogus statistics.

Travel/medical insurance will be the main issue if you get caught out by cancellations, quarantine conditions etc, while in Africa. Even though you may not get the virus it could be very expensive if you get caught out and stuck in Africa. Apparently insurers will not cover even though you have booked flights and paid insurance before the virus became 'known'. Now that it is known insurers are running scared. It's a catch 22 though because if you decide not to go and want to cancel flights and insurance they may not pay out, and especially won't if you have booked anything after the corona virus became known and travel advisories issued.

I have a question
If I’m somewhere and because of this I may have to stay longer, will airlines work with us to postpone flights for another week or two and charge us arm and leg?
That would be the only issue I have

I quit worrying about pandemics a long time ago. When I want to go hunting, I go hunting. I'm more likely to get killed in a charter plane accident than by any animal or disease. And I don't worry about that either. It was Ebola a few years ago, and will be again, then bird flu, this year Corona. Next year it will be something else. We all die. When it's your time, it just is. Why worry about it? Live life.

I just had to rebook an international ticket for my wife, she needs to leave earlier due to family logistics. The airline waived the change fees. The airlines seem to be pretty accommodating regarding changes to travel plans

quote:

Originally posted by lavaca:
I quit worrying about pandemics a long time ago. When I want to go hunting, I go hunting. I'm more likely to get killed in a charter plane accident than by any animal or disease. And I don't worry about that either. It was Ebola a few years ago, and will be again, then bird flu, this year Corona. Next year it will be something else. We all die. When it's your time, it just is. Why worry about it? Live life.

Its not a matter of the effect of the disease on you, apparently if you are healthy with a good immune system the Covid-19 virus is no worse than a dose of the usual influenza that strikes around the world each year, usually during winter and with hundreds of thousands of people dying every year. Agree with you when your time is up it is up.
The problem with pandemics, especially this latest is that the WHO and many countries health authorities are quarantining people (whole cruise ships even) and embargoing travel, airlines cancelling flights and strict border controls even to the extent of closing borders from entry for travellers from certain at risk countries.

You may not die of Covid-19 and may remain perfectly healthy but may just be prevented getting back home or quarantined somewhere and your travel and insurance agents saying tough titty dummy

I'm heading to Auckland on Tuesday to care for my 9 year old grandson for the rest of the week. Now five confirmed Covid-19 cases in Auckland some residing only a few blocks from where I'll be and at least one patient is in the hospital another of my daughters works in. Am I concerned?, not really, I've got a good immune system, got over 160 days sick leave accumulated with the company I work for and could hole up quite happily if need be with family in Auckland. I wouldn't be so cocky if travelling internationally though.

My Doctor told me yesterday, that those who are heavy smokers are at greater risk. Those who smoke like chimneys and smoke street sweepings are the ones shuffling off the most. Go figure.
The other bit of advice to try not to cough
when aiming.

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:
Jesus man up. It's a flu for christ sake.

No shit!

A rose by any other name.......

quote:

Originally posted by DuggaBoye:

quote:

Given that COVID-19 is 10x to 20x more deadly than the common flu,

There is ZERO scientific data to back this up

DuggaBoye, I should have specified among the older populations. That said, there is data and while it's evolving, there are multiple sources that I can point to, including Stanford Hospital doctors with whom I've spoken to firsthand who point to death rates significantly higher for Covid-19 than for influenza.

For instance, here's a sobering chart:


and another:


THe WHO just released their latest Situation Report 46 an hour ago for March 6th:

quote:

Mortality for COVID-19 appears higher than for influenza, especially seasonal influenza. While the true mortality of
COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the
number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number
of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually
well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.

With what little we know about the virus I do think it is prudent for older people, or those with serious medical issues, to be cautious. It's clearly is not the garden variety flu. Getting delayed or substandard medical care might make a huge difference in the outcome for some individuals.

I also think diseases change the way we perceive risk. I've done some risky things in boats, airplanes and in my line of work. In each of those cases I was in control to a point. The outcome was determined by my action or inaction. Diseases are different. We have little control and often must depend on others for care.

What we do also impacts our families. So a risk/benefit analysis might be in order.

How Are Italy, South Korea, Iran, etc able to confirm cases so fast/accurately? My impression was that getting test kits out was a major factor worldwide?

Lefty- Please don't take offense; your stats are total BS. No other way to put it. There is no handle on the number of unreported cases. It may be in the 100s of thousands. It takes any real mortality figures down to a seriously low and inconsequential number. The media and those putting out these bogus charts should be ashamed for not putting a huge disclaimer on the heading of any such chart or media report.

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:
Jesus man up. It's a flu for christ sake.

Not sure who you are directing your comment to but I am the OP so I will respond.

Nobody here seems to be "Afraid" to travel and if you read my post you will see that my question isn't "should I go or not?" but rather will airlines cancel flight so I will have no way of getting there.

You are from Africa/Zambia...do you have any helpful insights as to the situation there?

My concern would be getting caught up in quarantines and not being able to handle business affairs while being stuck.

quote:

Originally posted by fairgame:
Jesus man up. It's a flu for christ sake.

......and this is part of the problem. COVID 19 is not the flu.

Perhaps for 80-85% of the population the symptoms are similar to the common flu. For the other 15-20%, it is a completely different animal.

Where does a PH's responsibility end for their client. Are you only there to protect against a charging buff. Yes, we are all untimely responsible for ourselves, but is this the year you really want to have the following in camp:

1. The 60 year old heavy smoker.

2. The 64 year old diabetic.

3. The 68 year old kidney transplant, on anti rejection drugs.

4. The 72 year old with arrhythmia.

5. The 76 year old in excellent health who just happens to be 76.

6. Etc.


I am not telling anyone to not go hunting. (I have not made a decision on my hunt in May yet) For most of us the virus won't be a significant health problem although there may be logistics or financial issues. If you go back to the first coronavirus thread started on February 1, most posters acted like this virus was a nonevent. I may have been the only one urging caution then, and stating this could easily go pandemic, due to the fact I had spent a few hours studying it. Covid 19 has characteristics that when combined, probably make this completely different from anything we have seen in our lifetimes. This is not the flu.

If the MSM is over hyping this event, that is unfortunate and is not in the public interest.

To compare this virus to the common flu is also a disservice in the other direction and not in the public interest.


We will know much more in a few months. Perhaps my caution is unwarranted. I pray I am wrong. In the meantime I will step away from this thread. There are other things I can do with my time.


All the best and good hunting.